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Robert Gougeon's avatar

I'm inclined to note a distinction I've been thinking more about in our age of democratic crises of trust. That's a distinction between, what I'd call, long versus short-chain reasoning.

An example of short-chain resasoning: mommy tells little Johnny not to touch the stove element when it's hot. Johnny being the inquisitive contrarian he is, tries it, and screams with pain, and never tries it again. A very short distance between hypothesis-evidence-conclusion.

Long-chain reasoning seems to be the stuff that befuddles our democratic discussions and opinions. Examples: climate change, vaccines, tariffs and inflation, etc., etc. Long-chain reasoning places people in the dilemma of choosing, without being able to assess the evidence themselves, the experts to trust. Institutional experts and political barkers offer themselves as trustworthy candidates.

In an era of misinfo and deep fakes, the dilemma has become even more acute. The solution would appear not to have politicians standing up and simply saying "trust the experts, I trust the science", but advancing forms of proof that can be monitored by a wider public than simply relatively closed institutions claiming special expertise. The recent pandemic offered a perfect example of communicative failure to advance such forms of public proof. Granted the time-frames for action were short with deadly consequences. Nevertheless public methods for gaining trust need to be front and centre, not an after-thought of such institutions. Media campaigns need to be proof-oriented not simply persuasion-oriented through fear, virtue signaling and condemnation.

In other words, a public evidence-based discourse and forms of collective association can hopefully counter-balance the techniques of persuasion of powerful bullies.

Anyhoo, just a thought : )

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Sufeitzy's avatar

You’re going to get a host of instant medical experts opine with this note, wish you the best.

With all disease discussions, there are people who become instant infectious disease experts, as well as epidemiologists, gastroenterologists, nutritionists, oncologists, cardiologists and neurologists.

My favorite were doctors who weren’t doctors - Dr Jay seems popular this month, the one who claimed in April of 2020 that the rate of COVID prior infection was off by a factor o 200-300%, while people were dying right and left in major hospitals. Call it COVID amnesia. Nobody remembers the charlatans.

Pasteurization kills among other things tuberculosis, and listeria. The data are clear, before mandatory pasteurization of milk in NY, there were 240 deaths per 1000 live births, seven years after pasteurization it was 71 per 1000.

When kids start dying charlatans will be drummed out of work, but unfortunately, not prosecuted…

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