I would add that support for Trump also starts and ends with psychology.
Most of the narratives of the 2024 election are garbage, because they assign a rationality to Trump voters that didn’t exist. Usually it’s some version of how those voters were responding to the hardship of [inflation/whatever] and if only the Democrats had understood this etc.
The truth is that most Trump voters were just fine. They certainly weren’t facing the sort of hardships that might force otherwise rational adults to turn to an obvious charlatan like Trump. Those stories about hating inflation were after-the-fact justifications for their votes, but they were never the motivator.
The Trump votes were driven by psychology. Mostly: a child-like psychology of shallow selfishness. Materially comfortable but bored, aimless types voted for him because (i) they swallowed the culture war propaganda, (ii) they don’t know or care what makes their country and their communities work so well and/or (iii) they enjoy indulging their darker feelings about ‘others’. These are the people who live a life of play, and don’t see any reason to grow up.
First, so sad that smart people have to spend so much time thinking about someone so stupid, including psychoanalysis. Really is.
Second, while I'm no professional strategist, I did spend two years as a civilian faculty member at the (US) National War College leading seminars with top-notch deep state career professionals from our military services and civilian agencies and "partner country" counterparts (at least I hope they still are) thinking about national security strategy. Why do I say this here? Because the first step in strategy--to impose a temporal sequence on an iterative process in an infinite game--is to assess the strategic context and to identify the "problem" you're trying to solve. (Easier said than done).
But if you don't bother even trying to understand the strategic context, you'll (inexorably) misidentify the problem. Then guess what? Your strategy will be aimed at solving the wrong problem, including one that (as you rightly point out) might not even exist. It turns out you can expect roughly the same result from this kind of mistake as a doctor treating a disease that has been misdiagnosed (or that might not even be a disease, notwithstanding your invasive surgery), only magnified to scale by the fact that it is a comprehensive (political, economic etc.) problem involving millions of of people, and in this case scores of nations across the globe.
I think this is precisely what you have identified our dear leader (don't know what else to call him) doing, but that's just the start of the multifarious mistake. So where else can we expect this madness to lead than unmitigated disaster?
I agree! Any analysis of trump has to explore from the angle of his psychology.
The MAGA slogan was rolled out in the Reagan years, when the cruel hoax of trickle-down tax cuts introduced the beginning of appalling economic inequality that has worsened ever since. Maybe if the Americans were more like the French, they would hold anger at their government, not fear. Reagan implanted the notion that government was the enemy.
The Americans voted for economic destruction to reduce the number of immigrants and get cheaper eggs. The outcome: Make child labour great again, get some chickens, plant potatoes in your garden.
Thank you for this analysis. But I can't help but think that one cannot discuss the current Trump psychosis without addressing that of Elon Musk, who echos and intensifies Trump's darkest instincts and who willingly assists in accomplishing the win for Trump. Unfortunately for the US and for the world it is a double whammy!
"But I’ve never seen him allow that ever Reagan accomplished anything even close to Trump."
I have never understood the santification of Regan by many in the US, its a bit like the UK and Thatcher. They were both disastrous for the bulk of their respective people. In may ways they were the proto Trumps, the model which he has copied and exaggerated beyond measure.
They were the first to blame the government and civil service for over regulation which they then used to de-regulate to the point where inequality is now rampant and big business runs both countries. They were also the first to lie about the causes of that inequality and use the now de-regulated right wing press to be their loud hailers.
In the case of Reagan he oversaw the Iran Contra scandal which should have seen him impeacehed. He did not win the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the Soviet Bloc were brought down by the in built in anomalies in their own economies. Trickle down economics was a lie and it is still a lie under Trump, and of course he clearly had dementia during most of his second term.
Reagan had two indisputable accomplishments, I would argue. He beat stagflation by refusing to remove Volcker, which was an accomplishment because all his aides wanted him to fire Volcker and change policy rather than lose re-election (as seemed certain in 982/83.) The other is Gorbachev: all the hardliners around him, and the conservative press, insisted he shouldn’t trust Gorbachev; Reagan’s rejection of that approach was crucial to the peaceful conclusion of the Cold War.
"From this emerged Donald Trump’s relentlessly zero-sum worldview. Your gain is my loss. Your fame and success mean less for me. I must push you down for me to advance. There is no such thing as mutually beneficial exchange, only the endless struggle to win by making the other guy lose."
But this is not just true of Trump, this kind of world view or societal view is baked into the US DNA. It reverberates through their history and politics; from the slavery era, to the concept of Manifest Destiny, through Reconstruction, to the Robber Barons and on and on 'ad nauseum', to the idiocy of Ayn Rand and the 'F**k you buddy' attitude they still have to this day.
They call it the American dream its more like a nightmare. I would say 70% of the US population do not believe in the idea of 'society' or community and the 'greatest good for the greatest number'.
They certainly do not see the government as a potential force for good. This is largely due to the very different evolution of the US from that of Europe from the 19th century on.
If you only think of national success in terms of the guy running the business perhaps you can imagine any restrictions on competition are a good thing. Sure you have suppliers but you think you can screw then too so your main concern is to shut out competition.
Trump just does not see trade from the point of view of a consumer.
For the wealthy a common theme is the prediction that US stocks had better growth than most because they were undervalued and that is no longer true. Stock markets are way more efficient now and you should expect average returns to be lower.
So what to do to retain your investment driven income? A obvious move is to cut taxes and if that means cutting anything and everything so be it.
This is excellent.
I would add that support for Trump also starts and ends with psychology.
Most of the narratives of the 2024 election are garbage, because they assign a rationality to Trump voters that didn’t exist. Usually it’s some version of how those voters were responding to the hardship of [inflation/whatever] and if only the Democrats had understood this etc.
The truth is that most Trump voters were just fine. They certainly weren’t facing the sort of hardships that might force otherwise rational adults to turn to an obvious charlatan like Trump. Those stories about hating inflation were after-the-fact justifications for their votes, but they were never the motivator.
The Trump votes were driven by psychology. Mostly: a child-like psychology of shallow selfishness. Materially comfortable but bored, aimless types voted for him because (i) they swallowed the culture war propaganda, (ii) they don’t know or care what makes their country and their communities work so well and/or (iii) they enjoy indulging their darker feelings about ‘others’. These are the people who live a life of play, and don’t see any reason to grow up.
First, so sad that smart people have to spend so much time thinking about someone so stupid, including psychoanalysis. Really is.
Second, while I'm no professional strategist, I did spend two years as a civilian faculty member at the (US) National War College leading seminars with top-notch deep state career professionals from our military services and civilian agencies and "partner country" counterparts (at least I hope they still are) thinking about national security strategy. Why do I say this here? Because the first step in strategy--to impose a temporal sequence on an iterative process in an infinite game--is to assess the strategic context and to identify the "problem" you're trying to solve. (Easier said than done).
But if you don't bother even trying to understand the strategic context, you'll (inexorably) misidentify the problem. Then guess what? Your strategy will be aimed at solving the wrong problem, including one that (as you rightly point out) might not even exist. It turns out you can expect roughly the same result from this kind of mistake as a doctor treating a disease that has been misdiagnosed (or that might not even be a disease, notwithstanding your invasive surgery), only magnified to scale by the fact that it is a comprehensive (political, economic etc.) problem involving millions of of people, and in this case scores of nations across the globe.
I think this is precisely what you have identified our dear leader (don't know what else to call him) doing, but that's just the start of the multifarious mistake. So where else can we expect this madness to lead than unmitigated disaster?
PS - Boy would I love to be wrong about this.
I agree! Any analysis of trump has to explore from the angle of his psychology.
The MAGA slogan was rolled out in the Reagan years, when the cruel hoax of trickle-down tax cuts introduced the beginning of appalling economic inequality that has worsened ever since. Maybe if the Americans were more like the French, they would hold anger at their government, not fear. Reagan implanted the notion that government was the enemy.
The Americans voted for economic destruction to reduce the number of immigrants and get cheaper eggs. The outcome: Make child labour great again, get some chickens, plant potatoes in your garden.
Policy by delusion is an interesting approach.
Yup. The view is so delusional the Trumpians think changing copy on federal websites will erase history. Good analysis.
Thanks again for the history Dan!
Thank you for this analysis. But I can't help but think that one cannot discuss the current Trump psychosis without addressing that of Elon Musk, who echos and intensifies Trump's darkest instincts and who willingly assists in accomplishing the win for Trump. Unfortunately for the US and for the world it is a double whammy!
This is a brilliant piece of writing and has the added benefit of ringing true. Thank you, Dan.
"But I’ve never seen him allow that ever Reagan accomplished anything even close to Trump."
I have never understood the santification of Regan by many in the US, its a bit like the UK and Thatcher. They were both disastrous for the bulk of their respective people. In may ways they were the proto Trumps, the model which he has copied and exaggerated beyond measure.
They were the first to blame the government and civil service for over regulation which they then used to de-regulate to the point where inequality is now rampant and big business runs both countries. They were also the first to lie about the causes of that inequality and use the now de-regulated right wing press to be their loud hailers.
In the case of Reagan he oversaw the Iran Contra scandal which should have seen him impeacehed. He did not win the Cold War, the Soviet Union and the Soviet Bloc were brought down by the in built in anomalies in their own economies. Trickle down economics was a lie and it is still a lie under Trump, and of course he clearly had dementia during most of his second term.
Reagan had two indisputable accomplishments, I would argue. He beat stagflation by refusing to remove Volcker, which was an accomplishment because all his aides wanted him to fire Volcker and change policy rather than lose re-election (as seemed certain in 982/83.) The other is Gorbachev: all the hardliners around him, and the conservative press, insisted he shouldn’t trust Gorbachev; Reagan’s rejection of that approach was crucial to the peaceful conclusion of the Cold War.
"From this emerged Donald Trump’s relentlessly zero-sum worldview. Your gain is my loss. Your fame and success mean less for me. I must push you down for me to advance. There is no such thing as mutually beneficial exchange, only the endless struggle to win by making the other guy lose."
But this is not just true of Trump, this kind of world view or societal view is baked into the US DNA. It reverberates through their history and politics; from the slavery era, to the concept of Manifest Destiny, through Reconstruction, to the Robber Barons and on and on 'ad nauseum', to the idiocy of Ayn Rand and the 'F**k you buddy' attitude they still have to this day.
They call it the American dream its more like a nightmare. I would say 70% of the US population do not believe in the idea of 'society' or community and the 'greatest good for the greatest number'.
They certainly do not see the government as a potential force for good. This is largely due to the very different evolution of the US from that of Europe from the 19th century on.
The supreme irony is that Trump himself is the best conceivable argument for eugenics.
A couple of thoughts.
If you only think of national success in terms of the guy running the business perhaps you can imagine any restrictions on competition are a good thing. Sure you have suppliers but you think you can screw then too so your main concern is to shut out competition.
Trump just does not see trade from the point of view of a consumer.
For the wealthy a common theme is the prediction that US stocks had better growth than most because they were undervalued and that is no longer true. Stock markets are way more efficient now and you should expect average returns to be lower.
So what to do to retain your investment driven income? A obvious move is to cut taxes and if that means cutting anything and everything so be it.
He who has the last laugh wins?
What if, in the end, no one is laughing?