The powerful are subject to the same flaws and follies as the rest of us.
Your percentage calculations (multiplying the three probabilities together to get the probability of all 3 happening) only make sense if the probabilities are all independent of one another. It's not at all obvious to me that they are.
Your percentage calculations (multiplying the three probabilities together to get the probability of all 3 happening) only make sense if the probabilities are all independent of one another. It's not at all obvious to me that they are.