Thank you for this. Finally, a reasonable prediction of the future actually informed by the study of history. Just browsing around online it's easy to be convinced the world as we know it is gonna end every minute, no really guys...
New York State had a law that forbade pretending to be able to predict the future. I first saw it on the wall of a professional economic forecaster. Meant to keep us humble.
Add this to the collection of reasons to pay even less attention to the economics industry, just another subsidiary of the corporate propaganda apparatus. I’m always amazed by its knack for continued existence after the Milton Friedman misstep and resulting collapse of middle class growth. This was a great article and presented to me some promising looking information sources. Thank you.
This was a greet read. Is there anything that can and has been predicted long term? I’m thinking of the Climate. While I believe we should stop polluting our planet and stop deforesting it, and in general live in harmony with the natural world, the certainty of specific types of Doom scenarios seem not possible for a complex system. Maybe that is for the best, because it spurs people to action and common sense says you can’t pollute forever without consequences, but do you believe those forecasts are accurate?
Predictability varies enormously from field to field. Want to know how many 80 year olds there will be in a given population in 30 years? Fairly predictable. The price of oil in 30 years? Give up now. On that scale, climate change is among the more predictable fields. There are theoretical reasons for that but we don't need theory now: We have many decades of past climate forecasting and, in general, the results that we can now judge have proven to be, on the whole, quite accurate.
I disagree. The apocalyptic predictions of doom from the climate cult since 1989 have been proven wrong again and again. Yes, there is a general, mild warming trend. No, it has not proven disastrous, nor is there any reason to believe it will.
Thanks for the reply. Well that is disconcerting. I was hoping maybe there was a chance we didn’t mess it up as bad as it seems. But I guess that wouldn’t really change anything.
You said that it was disconcerting that climate change could reasonably be predicted. Again, I respectfully disagree. Climate has always changed and - it seems - continues to change. There was, for example, a mini-ice age in the 1600s; I understand (I wasn't there, you know) that the Thames River froze over 1608, 1683–84, 1716, 1739–40, 1789, and 1814 [thank you, Mr. Google!].
In other words, the mini-ice age hit England in the 1600s and then started to warm over time. Oh, yeah, apparently it also froze over in 1962-63, as well. So, yes, it is reasonable to assume that climate will continue to change.
As for whether that change results from human actions, I will leave that to the acolytes of the Church of Climate and the Church of "Other Reasons" to debate.
The photographer is Kevin Dietrich, from a 2014 National Geographic Traveler photo contest, which is listed in the bottom right of this Pinterest photo: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/29906785000158389/
Loved this; an intriguing book by Canadian David Orrell entitled Apollo’s Arrow, explores all the efforts human beings have made to predict weather, markets and much more. Again and again, they have been thwarted by the inherent complexity of hu
Excellent article. Based on decades of seeing failed predictions of all sorts, I maintain that any specific forecast beyond 5, maybe 10, years in the future will turn out wrong. This is true whether the forecast is in the domain of economics, politics, science, technology, or the environment. (I exclude from this assessment predictions for deterministic systems such as the orbit of Pluto.)
Based on their history of failure after failure, there is simply no reason to give the prognosticators of doom, nirvana, and everything in between our attention and money. Yet we continue to be suckered.
Thurow and his ilk lured me into economics as a major and I was seriously disappointed that the mainstream neoclassical theory of the time was not as much fun to read. What I have noticed, as a regularity not as a law, is that given a pair of equally experienced and capable policy analysts, the one that will be right is the one that has the most up-to-date information on what has changed in the last 10 years. You can be an order-of-magnitude wrong if you take your eye off the research frontier for that long. I say this knowing that my theoretical foundation is 30 years old, but I know that it's wrong, eh?
Really interesting analysis. I thought you were heading to conclude that China would never supersede the US, but I agree with your conclusion. But, just a great perspective on the subject. Thanks.
Movies from the 80s where plenty of examples of Japanese evil corporations ruling America. From the old version of Marty McFly being fired, to the Detroit of Robocop III...
I just remember’Japan Inc.’ I seem to remember it was all about how the Ministry of International Trade was made up of the brightest, sagest people that had ever existed. Kind of like how some commentators talk about some Chinese bureaucrats.
Interesting, I learned a lot by reading this. I did not know China's current economy had contracted. I like Elon a lot, more all the time, but he is an idiot-savant, and he gets a lot right, he gets a lot wrong. China has become the world's manufacturer (at least for consumer goods) I don't personally like that, but its a fact. I cant help but think that this fact, and the increasing off-loading of manufacturing capability to others by the USA, affects Musk's thinking.
...man events and natural forces. In addition, I am fascinated by how often, even when we know how things are unfolding, we have to go on making predictions that fail us repeatedly. One global liquor company, knowing in May 2020, that COVID would be massive and long-standing, predicted that they would lose sales massively. They prepared to lay off many staff, as a result. No one was going out to dine or to bars or to duty-free shops. However, their second order prediction forgot to take into account how many people would go out to buy booze and take it home to consume. If you happen to be good at predicting, you have to keep on being smart over and over.
Thank you for this. Finally, a reasonable prediction of the future actually informed by the study of history. Just browsing around online it's easy to be convinced the world as we know it is gonna end every minute, no really guys...
I predict the future will surprise anyone who makes predictions.
New York State had a law that forbade pretending to be able to predict the future. I first saw it on the wall of a professional economic forecaster. Meant to keep us humble.
It was likely an anti-fortune teller law. England had those too.
Add this to the collection of reasons to pay even less attention to the economics industry, just another subsidiary of the corporate propaganda apparatus. I’m always amazed by its knack for continued existence after the Milton Friedman misstep and resulting collapse of middle class growth. This was a great article and presented to me some promising looking information sources. Thank you.
This was a greet read. Is there anything that can and has been predicted long term? I’m thinking of the Climate. While I believe we should stop polluting our planet and stop deforesting it, and in general live in harmony with the natural world, the certainty of specific types of Doom scenarios seem not possible for a complex system. Maybe that is for the best, because it spurs people to action and common sense says you can’t pollute forever without consequences, but do you believe those forecasts are accurate?
Predictability varies enormously from field to field. Want to know how many 80 year olds there will be in a given population in 30 years? Fairly predictable. The price of oil in 30 years? Give up now. On that scale, climate change is among the more predictable fields. There are theoretical reasons for that but we don't need theory now: We have many decades of past climate forecasting and, in general, the results that we can now judge have proven to be, on the whole, quite accurate.
I disagree. The apocalyptic predictions of doom from the climate cult since 1989 have been proven wrong again and again. Yes, there is a general, mild warming trend. No, it has not proven disastrous, nor is there any reason to believe it will.
Thanks for the reply. Well that is disconcerting. I was hoping maybe there was a chance we didn’t mess it up as bad as it seems. But I guess that wouldn’t really change anything.
Ah, F W, I respectfully disagree!
You said that it was disconcerting that climate change could reasonably be predicted. Again, I respectfully disagree. Climate has always changed and - it seems - continues to change. There was, for example, a mini-ice age in the 1600s; I understand (I wasn't there, you know) that the Thames River froze over 1608, 1683–84, 1716, 1739–40, 1789, and 1814 [thank you, Mr. Google!].
In other words, the mini-ice age hit England in the 1600s and then started to warm over time. Oh, yeah, apparently it also froze over in 1962-63, as well. So, yes, it is reasonable to assume that climate will continue to change.
As for whether that change results from human actions, I will leave that to the acolytes of the Church of Climate and the Church of "Other Reasons" to debate.
The photographer is Kevin Dietrich, from a 2014 National Geographic Traveler photo contest, which is listed in the bottom right of this Pinterest photo: https://www.pinterest.com/pin/29906785000158389/
https://kevin-dietrich.pixels.com/
Fantastic! Thanks!
Loved this; an intriguing book by Canadian David Orrell entitled Apollo’s Arrow, explores all the efforts human beings have made to predict weather, markets and much more. Again and again, they have been thwarted by the inherent complexity of hu
Excellent article. Based on decades of seeing failed predictions of all sorts, I maintain that any specific forecast beyond 5, maybe 10, years in the future will turn out wrong. This is true whether the forecast is in the domain of economics, politics, science, technology, or the environment. (I exclude from this assessment predictions for deterministic systems such as the orbit of Pluto.)
Based on their history of failure after failure, there is simply no reason to give the prognosticators of doom, nirvana, and everything in between our attention and money. Yet we continue to be suckered.
Thurow and his ilk lured me into economics as a major and I was seriously disappointed that the mainstream neoclassical theory of the time was not as much fun to read. What I have noticed, as a regularity not as a law, is that given a pair of equally experienced and capable policy analysts, the one that will be right is the one that has the most up-to-date information on what has changed in the last 10 years. You can be an order-of-magnitude wrong if you take your eye off the research frontier for that long. I say this knowing that my theoretical foundation is 30 years old, but I know that it's wrong, eh?
Really interesting analysis. I thought you were heading to conclude that China would never supersede the US, but I agree with your conclusion. But, just a great perspective on the subject. Thanks.
Movies from the 80s where plenty of examples of Japanese evil corporations ruling America. From the old version of Marty McFly being fired, to the Detroit of Robocop III...
Certainly. This scene from "Rising Sun" sums up the entire genre: https://clip.cafe/rising-sun-1993/plundering-our-natural-resources/
Anything where Steven Douglas is the leading man is cringy to watch today.
I just remember’Japan Inc.’ I seem to remember it was all about how the Ministry of International Trade was made up of the brightest, sagest people that had ever existed. Kind of like how some commentators talk about some Chinese bureaucrats.
"They play 12-dimensional chess! They're thinking ahead two hundred years!" Yep.
If that was ever true, it ended when Xi seized total power. Now it’s all cronyism.
Some of us still try to think in decades, if not centuries
Interesting, I learned a lot by reading this. I did not know China's current economy had contracted. I like Elon a lot, more all the time, but he is an idiot-savant, and he gets a lot right, he gets a lot wrong. China has become the world's manufacturer (at least for consumer goods) I don't personally like that, but its a fact. I cant help but think that this fact, and the increasing off-loading of manufacturing capability to others by the USA, affects Musk's thinking.
...man events and natural forces. In addition, I am fascinated by how often, even when we know how things are unfolding, we have to go on making predictions that fail us repeatedly. One global liquor company, knowing in May 2020, that COVID would be massive and long-standing, predicted that they would lose sales massively. They prepared to lay off many staff, as a result. No one was going out to dine or to bars or to duty-free shops. However, their second order prediction forgot to take into account how many people would go out to buy booze and take it home to consume. If you happen to be good at predicting, you have to keep on being smart over and over.