I appreciate the historical perspective that this post offers, but I which it offered some other possibilities for what has been driving the falling birth rate. I’m no expert, but some factors I’ve heard cited include: increasing education among women, shifts in employment among women and men, and falling fertility in men (which may be the real ticking time bomb here). Most likely, availability of birth control is a contributing factor along with all of these and more.
A poster above seems to want to see feminists undermined. But if rising education and employment among women leads to falling birth rates, the feminists he wants to undermine are not those of the present, but those of 75 or more years ago. Does anyone really want to go back to a society that so completely oppresses women?
I generally agree with your article, except to say that Canada's fertility rate is significantly lower than the countries for which you have shown data, so the problem resonates maybe more acutely here at home. I increasingly love Elon Musk, but he IS a bit of an idiot-savant, gets some things really right, and a bunch of other things really wrong. But I am happy with any legitimate reason to beat up feminists (metaphorically) and I think Elon's thinking helps to do that, especially the feminist trend towards demonizing motherhood and blaming the external world (vs taking personal responsibility) for their problems. So I say, Go Elon!
Whatever the causes, the fact that fertility rates are below replacement levels in Europe and America would seem to threaten the future of Western civilization if it continues indefinitely (unless you assume that third world immigration will somehow save the situation). The ideal would be a stable equilibrium.
I don’t think the chart tells the whole story nor exempts the introduction of the pill as a cause. Just because the trend was going down between 1900 and 1950 doesn’t mean it was naturally declining. Many things happened between 1900 and 1950, have you forgotten about the 2 world wars that killed many men and jailed whole families in concentration camps? And what about the stock market crash and Great Depression?
My late aunt who was born in 1911 said men and women were discouraged to marry during the Great Depression because it was considered irresponsible to start a family during that time.
I think the chart shows the country finally getting back to normal after WWII and then something major happened, like maybe the pill.?
I enjoyed your history lesson, but it looks to me like the birth rate has levelled off to around 2 since just beyond 2000. But that's just the "western world". And that might really be Elon's worry!
I mean, I would have think about the industrial revolution and the development of plastic, and forever chemicals, as well as all the other factors, has to make a noticeable difference in fertility rates. I gave birth to 3 live children. I lost 1 in 8th month of pregnancy and 2 before 3 months. I lost my boy to SIDS at 30 days. This has been years ago, but I know I dealt with way more health issues than my mom that had 8 children. I am offended with so many women and children in US suffering in poverty without much path up, that the power of the universe is worrying how to make more by force.
Excellent analysis. Thank you. If the critical concern is fertility rate vs. replacement, then it would be useful to plot both functions, fertility rate and replacement rate, so that differences could be noted. Or just plot the differences. I assume the replacement rate varies across time and across countries; maybe that assumption is incorrect. Also if fertility rate is births per woman, it might be misleading in respect to population replacement, at least in cross-national comparisons, because childhood mortality varies across counties. Would it be possible to get data about childhood survival (e..g, number of 15-yr-olds per woman 15 years earlier) and use these data instead of births per woman?
Like Elon Musk, in this case, Dan Gardner is likely shallow too. Read this (disclaimer: the linked piece may contain outdated information especially about fertility increases in high HDI countries): https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate . If the article’s claim that the pill is responsible for about 40% of the post-war post-1960 decline in fertility rate in US is correct, then it cannot be denied that the pill played a significant role in the decline.
You know you will never get to 133 million followers with this same and informed content. But thanks so much.
I appreciate the historical perspective that this post offers, but I which it offered some other possibilities for what has been driving the falling birth rate. I’m no expert, but some factors I’ve heard cited include: increasing education among women, shifts in employment among women and men, and falling fertility in men (which may be the real ticking time bomb here). Most likely, availability of birth control is a contributing factor along with all of these and more.
A poster above seems to want to see feminists undermined. But if rising education and employment among women leads to falling birth rates, the feminists he wants to undermine are not those of the present, but those of 75 or more years ago. Does anyone really want to go back to a society that so completely oppresses women?
I generally agree with your article, except to say that Canada's fertility rate is significantly lower than the countries for which you have shown data, so the problem resonates maybe more acutely here at home. I increasingly love Elon Musk, but he IS a bit of an idiot-savant, gets some things really right, and a bunch of other things really wrong. But I am happy with any legitimate reason to beat up feminists (metaphorically) and I think Elon's thinking helps to do that, especially the feminist trend towards demonizing motherhood and blaming the external world (vs taking personal responsibility) for their problems. So I say, Go Elon!
Whatever the causes, the fact that fertility rates are below replacement levels in Europe and America would seem to threaten the future of Western civilization if it continues indefinitely (unless you assume that third world immigration will somehow save the situation). The ideal would be a stable equilibrium.
I don’t think the chart tells the whole story nor exempts the introduction of the pill as a cause. Just because the trend was going down between 1900 and 1950 doesn’t mean it was naturally declining. Many things happened between 1900 and 1950, have you forgotten about the 2 world wars that killed many men and jailed whole families in concentration camps? And what about the stock market crash and Great Depression?
My late aunt who was born in 1911 said men and women were discouraged to marry during the Great Depression because it was considered irresponsible to start a family during that time.
I think the chart shows the country finally getting back to normal after WWII and then something major happened, like maybe the pill.?
I enjoyed your history lesson, but it looks to me like the birth rate has levelled off to around 2 since just beyond 2000. But that's just the "western world". And that might really be Elon's worry!
I mean, I would have think about the industrial revolution and the development of plastic, and forever chemicals, as well as all the other factors, has to make a noticeable difference in fertility rates. I gave birth to 3 live children. I lost 1 in 8th month of pregnancy and 2 before 3 months. I lost my boy to SIDS at 30 days. This has been years ago, but I know I dealt with way more health issues than my mom that had 8 children. I am offended with so many women and children in US suffering in poverty without much path up, that the power of the universe is worrying how to make more by force.
Excellent analysis. Thank you. If the critical concern is fertility rate vs. replacement, then it would be useful to plot both functions, fertility rate and replacement rate, so that differences could be noted. Or just plot the differences. I assume the replacement rate varies across time and across countries; maybe that assumption is incorrect. Also if fertility rate is births per woman, it might be misleading in respect to population replacement, at least in cross-national comparisons, because childhood mortality varies across counties. Would it be possible to get data about childhood survival (e..g, number of 15-yr-olds per woman 15 years earlier) and use these data instead of births per woman?
Like Elon Musk, in this case, Dan Gardner is likely shallow too. Read this (disclaimer: the linked piece may contain outdated information especially about fertility increases in high HDI countries): https://ourworldindata.org/fertility-rate . If the article’s claim that the pill is responsible for about 40% of the post-war post-1960 decline in fertility rate in US is correct, then it cannot be denied that the pill played a significant role in the decline.
Could you do how to raise the fertility rate based on actual data, please. I am assuming you won’t touch what the fertility rate should be.