I hope Canada and the Canadian people can implement all the suggestions in this article as quickly as possible.
Get moving— please do not squabble.
Musk , with Trump and Republicans help, is quickly dismantling our government.
You have no time to squabble among yourselves.
All government in America is over.
Send people to Asia, Europe , China. As soon as possible. Join NATO. Build your military and buy your weapons elsewhere. Not all made here is as reliable as it once was. We have 2 astronauts in space that can’t return to earth bc of Boeing failure .
Get going— you have very little time.
I hate seeing all that is good about my country disappear, but I live here, saw it coming, and did not vote for it.
Please save yourselves— but hurry.
Republicans are following 2025 to the letter and there is no guarantee that “what use to be our Supreme Court “will not uphold all that is in this decree. And many want Trump to have a 3rd term so he is not going anywhere. Besides, bc of our fractured media, snd voter suppression tactics in Red States— Americans no longer rely on free & fair elections. Just pretty words.
Guys, we are going back to 19th century while rest or world is moving into the future. God and nature moved forward never back-/ but folk here have lost their minds when it comes to that reality.
Canada may not have the time it needs to make all changes, but sending people to other countries can be done in a the a week or less.
From one American citizen who appreciated your friendship, I wish all of you the best.
I do not worry about Canada. Trump's bombast has been a remarkable gift - you just got a remarkable education and much needed kick in the ass. I expect the morale, determination and optimism of your people is rising. You are not actually going to be invaded. Trump isn't in a position to impose tariffs: the fickle American ppl would turn on Trump quickly if the stock market fell and he knows it You have time and resources to make healthier partnerships.
Trump is far weaker politically than most ppl see, IMO. He Is weakening the United States in every dimension. The polarization and strife is going to only grow. The American people will turn on him. He's not even in a position to juice the economy because of debt ceiling.
We're in for a rocky, destructive ride, but Americans will not suffer the coming mess gladly.
When you factor in allies like this writer from the US, Canada has far more than 40 million people on it's side. It would be foolish not to encourage and work with those millions of Americans as economic partners. And the timing is perfect.
Ok. What you are witnessing is the end of a 30 year plan by Republicans to turn America back to all social policies pre 1960.
They played the long game. Got their billionaire backers on board. Had right wing friends buy up all the radio stations in Red states so their messages would overwhelm any other media. Fox News became chief propaganda machine. All they lacked was a master salesman’s to unify their party and push their agenda. They got it in Mr. Trump.
You must understand that Mr. Trump is popular bc he hates what the MAGA hate and addresses there deeply racists grievances.So no.They will not turn against him. They are in his corner to the death.
That is why I warned you that this is not the America you once knew.
You have more tariffs coming. Announced today 2/9/25.
No time for Canadians to long for the past.
If I were prime minister, I would have someone on plane to Japan and rest of Asia to make deals for my steel and aluminum.
Yes. Trade with US. But no longer put all your eggs in our basket.
I agree with almost everything you say. But Trump depends on non-MAGA support, as do the Republican party. Elon's merry band of fascists are NOT popular. Trump is off to a terrible start. The Dems have be willing to fight but I believe they can win. They are in fact waking up.
“This country’s attitude over the past quarter-century was one of — my passport tells me I’m entitled to be blunt — smug complacency.”
As usual, another very good piece. Thank you.
At the same time, can we agree that when we talk about ‘smug complacency’, we are talking about a challenge involving all Canadians and not just the federal government? Too often over the past few years, every time we criticize or suggest there is a problem, Canadians seem to want to put the sole responsibility for the problem’s creation or solution on the federal government.
For example, throughout my 35 years in the diplomatic service, there was a constant effort made to encourage Canadian companies to explore other markets. Nobody would have done so with a sense that Mr. Trump’s mercantilist, gangsterist approach would come to be a threat. Yet, there was always a concern that such strong dependence on the US was a major risk. But, business decisions are not directed by government, be it federal or provincial, and there were always limits to how much pressure and policy direction could be applied to shift such decisions. And at no time over the 80s-90s-00s would it likely have made sense for many with a good contract in Cleveland to devote seed money and effort to seeking business opportunity in Indonesia or Brazil.
On other issues such as defence spending, it makes sense to attribute a more direct responsibility to the federal government, but even here it is clear that public sentiment was rarely in favour of such spending. And to continue to maintain electoral support, governments made little effort to make the case to Canadians or explain why it might ultimately be important.
Absolutely! My comments were (very broad-brush generalization) about Canadians. Not any government or even the whole political class. The underfunding of the military was, I would argue, mostly a reflection of domestic politics, not elite failure. Politicians gave us what we wanted. And what we wanted was dangerously shortsighted.
The situation is so ‘wicked’ that we are not likely choosing between any of their options 1, 2, or 3. Rather, we will be doing all three simultaneously depending on our analysis of risk and benefit.
Ideally, we would place a much greater emphasis on option three than we have in the past and Canadians will come with because Mr. Trump has made such actions advantageous, even popular. But the other options will still be front and centre in the immediate future in the face of his threats, taunts and attacks.
Hope we really have the ability to chew gum while walking, running, jumping, dodging, deflecting and so on.
They missed the biggest in my opinion. We are wilderness state, possibly the last one on a rapidly shrinking planet. Every Canadian feels the wilderness just to the north. It's the single unifying element common regardless where you live. Good branding - such as turning Algonquin into a true wilderness park and very large national parks where hunting is banned but photography is facilitated. Environment
Management would be our expertise and world class ecotourism an industry that can't be stolen, copied or trained. Very telling that none of your writers even mentioned this.
We should absolutely do that. But until we deal with the very real threats to Canada's sovereignty as outlined in the articles above, it is pointless to focus on parks development. It is all very well to make beautiful music, but not on the tilting deck of the Titanic.
More, bigger parks with only a few e o tourists (so as to not disturb the animals) is no way to grow an economy or to gain greater independence from USA.
Thanks for the piece, it’s a wake up call to be sure - one quibble though, NATO is already effectively dead and gone. Article V is the backbone of the treaty, and it is clearly without teeth at this point. No US to back up Article V = no NATO in any real sense as a deterrent. The attack on western democracies is from without and from within.
European NATO + Canada is more than strong enough to face down Russia, in the event this becomes necessary. Canada’s GDP alone is approximately equivalent to Russia’s. An attack from America is a different issue, but we should be able to support Ukraine and defend Estonia even without American help.
I entirely agree. One one consequence of the free ride Europeans and Canadians have taken on American security guarantees is a belittling self-perception. “Only the Americans can do it” is now a reflex. We need to break that habit and realize again our own strength. And act on our principles.
European + Canada appetite to go it alone is suspect at best, and while possible against Russia in the short term, it has no long term viability. NATO relies on the US umbrella to have any real teeth, to suggests otherwise misunderstands and misinterprets how NATO has functioned. Appeasement to the aggressor is a far more likely outcome at this juncture than is NATO resolve. You can disagree, but I certainly have no faith in a non-US led NATO “stepping up” to meet the moment.
And you note the other problem in your comment, whither a US attack on a NATO partner, be it Greenland (Denmark), Canada or another in some kind of nouveau imperialism. This is no longer a far fetched proposition, but a real threat. NATO is incapable of surviving an event like this.
So I’ll repeat, until proven otherwise, NATO is functionally dead.
I take your points but think you exaggerate. Several of our European partners still have significant militaries. Pooled, our assets are considerable. And many European weapons manufacturers are top tier, with designs that are absolutely cutting edge. Our free riding may have taught us a sort of learned helplessness, and that's our primary problem. But worldviews, fortunately, can change a lot faster than weapons can be designed and built.
And just to add - what I would certainly suggest is perhaps less that NATO is stronger than we think, and more that our adversaries are weaker than we give them credit for - whether Russia or China or other. They are also not in a position of strength.
Fair enough and noted - and I absolutely don’t disagree with the argument about feeling more helpless than we perhaps are. That being said, I don’t think I’m exaggerating, and we do need to be realistic. We will find out soon enough, because whether it’s self-perceived or not, enemies of the western world definitely smell blood and will look to take advantage. The Bretton Woods era is predicated on US global security and protection. It is a core requirement - how it looks without that is anyone’s guess. My confidence in NATO is not as strong I guess.
With a population of nearly 750 million, Europe is more than twice the size of the USA and five times the size of economically moribund Russia. The only reason Europe - all on their lonesome - couldn't muster an effective deterrent to puny Putin in Ukraine prior to 2014 is that they have the same attitude to military defense as Canada has: let the Yanks spend their lives and treasure defending the world. It was always foolish for Europe to depend upon an ally half its size and an ocean away for its defense. No American president was entirely happy with this; the only difference now is that Trump is doing something about it. Our cowardice, negligence, and self-serving cheapskateness has come back to haunt us. It's long past time we woke up. Nothing like a "gangster" to turn self-righteous peaceniks into military realists. We owe Trump a debt of gratitude for that.
1) this is the global order the US original envisioned when they made the offer at Bretton Woods - one can argue the emotion of this, but let’s not rewrite history in some misguided understanding of what transpired. The deal was US led security in exchange for a US led trading system. It was a good deal, and US Presidents have all recognized this until now. Have other countries let their own defence and security lag? Absolutely. Do we need to pivot quickly? Also absolutely. But don’t rewrite what actually happened.
2) I agree that what Trump is doing is waking us all up. It is an opportunity. But we need to take it, and not remain complacent or appease his wishes.
3) we need to be careful to disaggregate capability with willingness. Is Europe capable? Absolutely. Are they willing? That’s an entirely different question. Which leads to the final point I’ll make.
4) Europe is not a cohesive monolith speaking with one voice. Italy has moved to the right, and France, Germany and the UK are all within a hairs breath of electing far right leaning parties. Is there still time for that to wane? Sure. But how does NATO look with LaPen, the AfD and other far right parties calling the shots?
I’m not trying to be pessimistic, but the challenges are greater than folks seem to realize. And getting back to the original point of the post - NATO is in deep trouble. True leaders need to step up.
Couldn’t agree more with any of this. I just feel obliged to keep pointing to one glaring facet of the remedy that seems to be mostly absent from the discussion:
Housing and land use policy.
We can no longer afford the excessively restrictive and disparate policies in this domain that weaken our economic resilience and social fabric. The same zeal we’re now seeing for addressing internal trade must be extended to rationalizing and harmonizing the laws, regulations and processes that govern the building of housing and businesses.
As the writers put it:
“Mr. Trump’s threats are a national emergency, and should be seen as a call to build the necessary infrastructure as expeditiously as possible by cutting through the bureaucratic and political impediments that have unconscionably stalled Canada’s ability to do big things.”
I think a lot of people in the US, even Republican politicians are just too scared to say anything. They don’t have the guts to pull a South Korea on You Know Who.
Canada stands at a pivotal moment in its history. As one of the world’s oldest democracies, it must urgently address the existential threats posed by its outdated First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) electoral system. While the United States—a fellow FPTP democracy—teeters on the edge of democratic collapse, Canada cannot afford to dismiss the warning signs. FPTP is more than just a flawed system; it undermines the very foundations of democracy by fostering combative politics, as parties prioritize partisan warfare over governance. Compounding this crisis, America’s instability threatens Canada’s sovereignty and economic security. The time to act is now—before it’s too late.
The winner-takes-all nature of FPTP exacerbates regional fractures. The Conservatives’ dominance in Alberta and Liberal strongholds in urban centers like Toronto and Montreal alienate entire regions, breeding resentment and destabilizing national unity. These divisions erode national cohesion, undermining Canada’s ability to address pressing challenges.
Canada’s FPTP system distorts election results and leaves millions feeling disenfranchised. In the 2021 federal election, nearly 50% of votes were wasted, disenfranchising half of Canadians who had no meaningful representation. Smaller parties and their supporters are particularly crushed by FPTP. In 2019, the Green Party won 6.5% of the vote but secured just three seats—under 1% of Parliament. Proportional Representation (PR), where the percentage of votes equals seats in Parliament, would grant them 22 seats, reflecting true voter intent. Similarly, regional voices like the Bloc Québécois face distorted influence, deepening Quebec’s sense of marginalization. Such systemic exclusion risks radicalizing disenfranchised groups, threatening social stability.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s broken 2015 promise to end FPTP deepened public cynicism, yet polls consistently show that most Canadians demand electoral reform. A 2024 Pew study ranks electoral reform as the second-most popular solution to improve democracy, after “better politicians.” Further, 68% of Canadians support transitioning to PR, with even higher backing among younger voters (72%). Despite his 2015 failure, it may not be too late for Trudeau to champion PR legislation. Doing so would not only address a critical democratic deficit but also secure his legacy as a leader who modernized Canada’s governance.
PR fosters coalition governments and collaboration, reducing polarization. Over 80 nations with PR, including Germany and New Zealand, rank higher in governance, transparency, and trust. PR boosts turnout by ensuring every vote counts, restoring faith in institutions and national unity.
Without urgent reform, the nation risks mirroring America’s democratic decay—eroded trust, entrenched polarization, and institutional collapse. Transitioning to Proportional Representation is both a moral obligation and a practical necessity. For political parties, championing this reform represents a strategic opportunity: polls show overwhelming public support for PR, making it a potent issue to mobilize voters and distinguish themselves in the upcoming federal election.
Ok, here's a test of strategic resolve. Canada is in the process of buying fighter jets from an American supplier. We will probably operate them for 30 years, during which time they will require frequent software updates. The MAGA/FAFO crowd may just be a blip in our relationship, but what if it's not? We selected the jets for interoperability with US forces. If our political and thought leaders believe the relationship has indeed changed, why, for the love of Sir Isaac Brock, would we not review this procurement?
We ought to partner more closely with Japan. Being both sophisticated economies with similar values of peace and cooperation living near superpowers with expansionist ambitions give us similar strategic goals, and they need resources.
I published a book going through exactly these arguments and outcomes in June last year, correctly predicting Trump's win and his evocation of National Security to override all other restraints. Dark Watershed: The Breaking of America. (Raspberry Press AB) on Amazon. Try it, you'll like it.
This POSOTUS has basically said that the U.S. is a developer with prime real estate in mind. JFC, even Hitler didn't move this quickly. And, and I don't care if it's repetious, I have been SCREAMING that Canada is a sitting duck between MAGAUSA and RUSSIASA sibce 2016. That the supposedly smart people in gov't and media are only NOW getting the vapors makes me question my intelligence. In that maybe I should share some with the deaf, dumb, and blind leaders of the world who clearly can't see past their next fucking election.
Mr. Gardner, I write to you in appreciation of your various essays on this topic and to express my profound doubt that anything of any substance will occur.
I will use the column that you have provided (which I previously read in the Globe and Mail) in order to "justify" [what a word in this context!] my doubt.
"The development of these resources, particularly energy, strikes some as immoral." I live in Alberta and have seen so, so, so many actions to the detriment of my province. My living memory goes back a long way (I am 74) and starts with the administration of Diefenbaker forward, including the actions of Trudeau, pere, right down to Trudeau, fils. Yes, I speak of the National Energy Program but the war against us started significantly earlier in the time of T1. My point is that this war against Alberta and against energy is ingrained in the governing class of this country [dare I call them the Laurentian elite?]. In any event, I believe firmly that this attitude is so ingrained not only in that class but has become way of life, nay, a religion, a gospel, for so many in Canadian society.
I will put it differently. On a business trip to the US in, oh about 2009, I recall explaining to a US colleague that many Canadians were just absolutely certain (certain, I tell you!) that George W. Bush was just waiting for an excuse to invade Canada. Of course that was a nonsensical opinion of those who held it but it did reflect the knee-jerk anti-Americanism of many Canadians. Notwithstanding that anti-Americanism, Canadians were too smug and, yes, far too lazy to make needed changes. And they still are.
"Mr. Trump’s threats are a national emergency, and should be seen as a call to build the necessary infrastructure as expeditiously as possible by cutting through the bureaucratic and political impediments that have unconscionably stalled Canada’s ability to do big things. Those who argue that we must move beyond resource extraction are far too willing to make a perfect world the enemy of a good one."
Quite frankly, I absolutely do not expect any change from the expectation that we "must" achieve perfection - but without sacrifice - and I further expect that too many Canadians will reject the "good" in favor of aspiring to (but not working toward - except in theoretical policies, including policies against my province) the "perfect."
"None of this suggests we should abandon our values. We can maintain our internationalist approach; we can still champion human rights and do our part to make the world a better place."
The approach of Canadians is to trumpet the "virtue" of our healthcare system (which ranks at about 32 of 50 countries worldwide) and that we are involved in international peacekeeping (we aren't except in the most remote and inconsequential way) and to claim that we "punch above our weight" which is a non-sensical claim of no value. Our current Prime Minister - the flibbertigibbet as you accurately noted - has tried to tell the world of our (non) virtue and asserted a claim to a (non-existent) moral high ground and our chattering classes have entirely bought into this nonsense. So, maintain values, approach, human rights, make the world a better place? It is to laugh simply because we cannot properly do those things here. We need to concentrate on a whole lot of real world things and ignore this feel good nonsense.
"In a 2015 interview shortly after becoming Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau called Canada a “post-national state,” where outdated notions such as national pride and patriotism have less and less place in society." And, where did that leave us? No national pride; no patriotism; no belief in our value as a country. We have admitted at least a gazillion immigrants and an equal number of "permanent" and "temporary" ["temporary" - it is to laugh] residents and they have learned quite quickly that Canada is a way station. We cannot house these folks; we cannot educate their children; we cannot provide adequate employment; we cannot provide adequate medical care - see my comments above!; we simply cannot! We are not a country that has pride, that wants to work, that is willing to do hard things; we are a country that looks for the easy way to slide through. Put differently, a former federal cabinet and subsequent senior civil servant expressed that mindset when he declared before Parliament, "I'm entitled to my entitlements." In other words, the country OWES us something. What rot!
"The strategy we are calling for will require leadership, discipline and long-term focus – traits that have not been much in evidence in Canadian politics for many years."
Hmph! Leadership - none evident in this country. Discipline - the only discipline in Canada is the discipline to borrow and spend more and more money in order to bribe the populace to "vote for us!" but not the discipline to do hard things. Long term focus - sure, if you define long term as the next two months.
My point is that I truly see Canada as a failed state. I mentioned above that I am 74; were I younger I quite expect that I would emigrate - somewhere! - to seek a better life. As it is, mortality tables and common sense tell me that I have a limited number of years left so I will not move. My adult children, however, might. One of them has the skills and contacts to move internationally and he might. The other of my children does not have the requisite skills so she and her family are stuck in this country but even she has seen the writing on that proverbial wall.
I used to be proud to be a Canadian. Proud. I am no longer proud of being a Canadian but I am proud to be an Albertan; I am a Canadian by accident of birth. Quite frankly, being a Canadian is pretty much meaningless today given how diminished our worsers (definitely not our betters!) have made that status.
So, you want to fight DJT; why, I ask, because what is it about the CURRENT Canada - not the past, much diminished memory of Canada that you have - that is truly worth saving?
I'm a Canadian and an American. I pay about half my taxes to my province, half to the nation. In the US, it's about 90% to the nation, 10% to my state. The US is strong-center federalism; Canada is balanced federalism (balanced between centralized and decentralized).
I detected a bias towards nationalism in the authors' argument. Be careful about vilifying provincial independence and difference. Talking only about acting more unified, that is, more American, does not play to our strengths.
The smart move for Canada -- the only move, really -- is to use that balance of power between provinces and nation to uplift both.
Leaning towards strong central leadership is a natural human reaction in a crisis. And this is a crisis. But shifting Canada's security posture and presence on the world stage is a long game. And in a long game, building on core strengths wins.
And how is that States' Rights piece working for you now? The best track for Canada is to drop inter-provincial trade barriers while a strong, protective federal government directs and binds the nation together. We need more unity in Canada, and now more than ever.
As for this being a long game...I am not sure about that at all. Mr. Trump is notoriously impulsive and vindictive. As he becomes increasingly frustrated by the limitations to his power, and the incompetence of his administration, he will want to focus on a low hanging fruit to feed his base. It won't be Panama, because that will invoke a global response. I suspect Canada would be the sacrificial lamb.
Thanks for your comment Janet. The State's Rights complaint is a cry for a system closer to Canada's, that they'll never get; therefore, they argue over stupidities because they have no real responsibilities. It's not important (except of course for the people hurt along the way).
If the US was less centralized, people like Trump would be less of a problem. Moving Canada away from decentralization risks Canada having its own Trump-like problems. Better to take our strengths and build on them.
As to a long game, you're right: Trump's drive to incompetence will dowse itself soon enough. But changing Canada's economic and security position in the world looks to me like a very long game. If we want more than just surviving Trump, we need a long view.
I hope Canada and the Canadian people can implement all the suggestions in this article as quickly as possible.
Get moving— please do not squabble.
Musk , with Trump and Republicans help, is quickly dismantling our government.
You have no time to squabble among yourselves.
All government in America is over.
Send people to Asia, Europe , China. As soon as possible. Join NATO. Build your military and buy your weapons elsewhere. Not all made here is as reliable as it once was. We have 2 astronauts in space that can’t return to earth bc of Boeing failure .
Get going— you have very little time.
I hate seeing all that is good about my country disappear, but I live here, saw it coming, and did not vote for it.
Please save yourselves— but hurry.
Republicans are following 2025 to the letter and there is no guarantee that “what use to be our Supreme Court “will not uphold all that is in this decree. And many want Trump to have a 3rd term so he is not going anywhere. Besides, bc of our fractured media, snd voter suppression tactics in Red States— Americans no longer rely on free & fair elections. Just pretty words.
Guys, we are going back to 19th century while rest or world is moving into the future. God and nature moved forward never back-/ but folk here have lost their minds when it comes to that reality.
Canada may not have the time it needs to make all changes, but sending people to other countries can be done in a the a week or less.
From one American citizen who appreciated your friendship, I wish all of you the best.
Be free. Truly free.
I do not worry about Canada. Trump's bombast has been a remarkable gift - you just got a remarkable education and much needed kick in the ass. I expect the morale, determination and optimism of your people is rising. You are not actually going to be invaded. Trump isn't in a position to impose tariffs: the fickle American ppl would turn on Trump quickly if the stock market fell and he knows it You have time and resources to make healthier partnerships.
It's the Europeans fate I worry about.
Oooh!!! I think Europe is much better off than Canada. There is an ocean between us and them.
Ru is much more dangerous than the U.S.
Trump is far weaker politically than most ppl see, IMO. He Is weakening the United States in every dimension. The polarization and strife is going to only grow. The American people will turn on him. He's not even in a position to juice the economy because of debt ceiling.
We're in for a rocky, destructive ride, but Americans will not suffer the coming mess gladly.
Canada and its people have generously provided refuge and care to many people fleeing horrific conditions.
I wrote all I wrote today bc you deserve the care that you have given to so many.
Think what you will.
I am just sharing observations from having lived here all my life.
Just please look out for your country’s interests and do it soon.
🩷
You must believe that huge numbers of Americans are ruled by media driven culture wars which lead them to vote against their own interests.
This country has changed.
Do the hard work and do more east- west trading.
You can trade here if you want— but do not be dependent on us for anything.
You will be glad you made these changes going forward.
When you factor in allies like this writer from the US, Canada has far more than 40 million people on it's side. It would be foolish not to encourage and work with those millions of Americans as economic partners. And the timing is perfect.
From what I see happening here, I want to see Canada totally independent from US .
This place is no longer stable and Mr. Trump has proven this to us and to the world.
Democrats told Americans that this would happen but they chose not to believe them.
Look out for hate literature being smuggled to your country from here.
Such hate and hate media has severely damaged our country and it— unlike in your country- is protected here and normalized.
Unfortunately, we are dangerous neighbors.
Become as independent as possible from us and build your military. Look out for Number 1– Canada !!
The U.S. will deal with its fascism flirtation. The Canada-U.S. happy relationship can be rebuilt. Hopefully in my lifetime.
Ok. What you are witnessing is the end of a 30 year plan by Republicans to turn America back to all social policies pre 1960.
They played the long game. Got their billionaire backers on board. Had right wing friends buy up all the radio stations in Red states so their messages would overwhelm any other media. Fox News became chief propaganda machine. All they lacked was a master salesman’s to unify their party and push their agenda. They got it in Mr. Trump.
You must understand that Mr. Trump is popular bc he hates what the MAGA hate and addresses there deeply racists grievances.So no.They will not turn against him. They are in his corner to the death.
That is why I warned you that this is not the America you once knew.
You have more tariffs coming. Announced today 2/9/25.
No time for Canadians to long for the past.
If I were prime minister, I would have someone on plane to Japan and rest of Asia to make deals for my steel and aluminum.
Yes. Trade with US. But no longer put all your eggs in our basket.
Be well.
I agree with almost everything you say. But Trump depends on non-MAGA support, as do the Republican party. Elon's merry band of fascists are NOT popular. Trump is off to a terrible start. The Dems have be willing to fight but I believe they can win. They are in fact waking up.
Ok. We will see.
Take care.
“This country’s attitude over the past quarter-century was one of — my passport tells me I’m entitled to be blunt — smug complacency.”
As usual, another very good piece. Thank you.
At the same time, can we agree that when we talk about ‘smug complacency’, we are talking about a challenge involving all Canadians and not just the federal government? Too often over the past few years, every time we criticize or suggest there is a problem, Canadians seem to want to put the sole responsibility for the problem’s creation or solution on the federal government.
For example, throughout my 35 years in the diplomatic service, there was a constant effort made to encourage Canadian companies to explore other markets. Nobody would have done so with a sense that Mr. Trump’s mercantilist, gangsterist approach would come to be a threat. Yet, there was always a concern that such strong dependence on the US was a major risk. But, business decisions are not directed by government, be it federal or provincial, and there were always limits to how much pressure and policy direction could be applied to shift such decisions. And at no time over the 80s-90s-00s would it likely have made sense for many with a good contract in Cleveland to devote seed money and effort to seeking business opportunity in Indonesia or Brazil.
On other issues such as defence spending, it makes sense to attribute a more direct responsibility to the federal government, but even here it is clear that public sentiment was rarely in favour of such spending. And to continue to maintain electoral support, governments made little effort to make the case to Canadians or explain why it might ultimately be important.
Absolutely! My comments were (very broad-brush generalization) about Canadians. Not any government or even the whole political class. The underfunding of the military was, I would argue, mostly a reflection of domestic politics, not elite failure. Politicians gave us what we wanted. And what we wanted was dangerously shortsighted.
Also, the very thoughtful article you shared by Jones, Lagassé and Petrolekas reminded me of this editorial cartoon re-shared today by Adam Grant
https://substack.com/@adamgrant/note/c-92222173?r=1i17n&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
The situation is so ‘wicked’ that we are not likely choosing between any of their options 1, 2, or 3. Rather, we will be doing all three simultaneously depending on our analysis of risk and benefit.
Ideally, we would place a much greater emphasis on option three than we have in the past and Canadians will come with because Mr. Trump has made such actions advantageous, even popular. But the other options will still be front and centre in the immediate future in the face of his threats, taunts and attacks.
Hope we really have the ability to chew gum while walking, running, jumping, dodging, deflecting and so on.
I appreciate reading your perspective from across the border. Refreshing.
They missed the biggest in my opinion. We are wilderness state, possibly the last one on a rapidly shrinking planet. Every Canadian feels the wilderness just to the north. It's the single unifying element common regardless where you live. Good branding - such as turning Algonquin into a true wilderness park and very large national parks where hunting is banned but photography is facilitated. Environment
Management would be our expertise and world class ecotourism an industry that can't be stolen, copied or trained. Very telling that none of your writers even mentioned this.
We should absolutely do that. But until we deal with the very real threats to Canada's sovereignty as outlined in the articles above, it is pointless to focus on parks development. It is all very well to make beautiful music, but not on the tilting deck of the Titanic.
More, bigger parks with only a few e o tourists (so as to not disturb the animals) is no way to grow an economy or to gain greater independence from USA.
Thanks for the piece, it’s a wake up call to be sure - one quibble though, NATO is already effectively dead and gone. Article V is the backbone of the treaty, and it is clearly without teeth at this point. No US to back up Article V = no NATO in any real sense as a deterrent. The attack on western democracies is from without and from within.
European NATO + Canada is more than strong enough to face down Russia, in the event this becomes necessary. Canada’s GDP alone is approximately equivalent to Russia’s. An attack from America is a different issue, but we should be able to support Ukraine and defend Estonia even without American help.
I entirely agree. One one consequence of the free ride Europeans and Canadians have taken on American security guarantees is a belittling self-perception. “Only the Americans can do it” is now a reflex. We need to break that habit and realize again our own strength. And act on our principles.
Ukraine has lost the war. Trump is negotiating the terms of their surrender.
European + Canada appetite to go it alone is suspect at best, and while possible against Russia in the short term, it has no long term viability. NATO relies on the US umbrella to have any real teeth, to suggests otherwise misunderstands and misinterprets how NATO has functioned. Appeasement to the aggressor is a far more likely outcome at this juncture than is NATO resolve. You can disagree, but I certainly have no faith in a non-US led NATO “stepping up” to meet the moment.
And you note the other problem in your comment, whither a US attack on a NATO partner, be it Greenland (Denmark), Canada or another in some kind of nouveau imperialism. This is no longer a far fetched proposition, but a real threat. NATO is incapable of surviving an event like this.
So I’ll repeat, until proven otherwise, NATO is functionally dead.
I take your points but think you exaggerate. Several of our European partners still have significant militaries. Pooled, our assets are considerable. And many European weapons manufacturers are top tier, with designs that are absolutely cutting edge. Our free riding may have taught us a sort of learned helplessness, and that's our primary problem. But worldviews, fortunately, can change a lot faster than weapons can be designed and built.
And just to add - what I would certainly suggest is perhaps less that NATO is stronger than we think, and more that our adversaries are weaker than we give them credit for - whether Russia or China or other. They are also not in a position of strength.
Fair enough and noted - and I absolutely don’t disagree with the argument about feeling more helpless than we perhaps are. That being said, I don’t think I’m exaggerating, and we do need to be realistic. We will find out soon enough, because whether it’s self-perceived or not, enemies of the western world definitely smell blood and will look to take advantage. The Bretton Woods era is predicated on US global security and protection. It is a core requirement - how it looks without that is anyone’s guess. My confidence in NATO is not as strong I guess.
With a population of nearly 750 million, Europe is more than twice the size of the USA and five times the size of economically moribund Russia. The only reason Europe - all on their lonesome - couldn't muster an effective deterrent to puny Putin in Ukraine prior to 2014 is that they have the same attitude to military defense as Canada has: let the Yanks spend their lives and treasure defending the world. It was always foolish for Europe to depend upon an ally half its size and an ocean away for its defense. No American president was entirely happy with this; the only difference now is that Trump is doing something about it. Our cowardice, negligence, and self-serving cheapskateness has come back to haunt us. It's long past time we woke up. Nothing like a "gangster" to turn self-righteous peaceniks into military realists. We owe Trump a debt of gratitude for that.
A couple of points:
1) this is the global order the US original envisioned when they made the offer at Bretton Woods - one can argue the emotion of this, but let’s not rewrite history in some misguided understanding of what transpired. The deal was US led security in exchange for a US led trading system. It was a good deal, and US Presidents have all recognized this until now. Have other countries let their own defence and security lag? Absolutely. Do we need to pivot quickly? Also absolutely. But don’t rewrite what actually happened.
2) I agree that what Trump is doing is waking us all up. It is an opportunity. But we need to take it, and not remain complacent or appease his wishes.
3) we need to be careful to disaggregate capability with willingness. Is Europe capable? Absolutely. Are they willing? That’s an entirely different question. Which leads to the final point I’ll make.
4) Europe is not a cohesive monolith speaking with one voice. Italy has moved to the right, and France, Germany and the UK are all within a hairs breath of electing far right leaning parties. Is there still time for that to wane? Sure. But how does NATO look with LaPen, the AfD and other far right parties calling the shots?
I’m not trying to be pessimistic, but the challenges are greater than folks seem to realize. And getting back to the original point of the post - NATO is in deep trouble. True leaders need to step up.
Couldn’t agree more with any of this. I just feel obliged to keep pointing to one glaring facet of the remedy that seems to be mostly absent from the discussion:
Housing and land use policy.
We can no longer afford the excessively restrictive and disparate policies in this domain that weaken our economic resilience and social fabric. The same zeal we’re now seeing for addressing internal trade must be extended to rationalizing and harmonizing the laws, regulations and processes that govern the building of housing and businesses.
As the writers put it:
“Mr. Trump’s threats are a national emergency, and should be seen as a call to build the necessary infrastructure as expeditiously as possible by cutting through the bureaucratic and political impediments that have unconscionably stalled Canada’s ability to do big things.”
You must make a strong, independent Canada. There are many Americans on your side and right now there are many of us that wish we were Canadians.
I think a lot of people in the US, even Republican politicians are just too scared to say anything. They don’t have the guts to pull a South Korea on You Know Who.
A Safer Democracy Needed in Canada
Canada stands at a pivotal moment in its history. As one of the world’s oldest democracies, it must urgently address the existential threats posed by its outdated First-Past-the-Post (FPTP) electoral system. While the United States—a fellow FPTP democracy—teeters on the edge of democratic collapse, Canada cannot afford to dismiss the warning signs. FPTP is more than just a flawed system; it undermines the very foundations of democracy by fostering combative politics, as parties prioritize partisan warfare over governance. Compounding this crisis, America’s instability threatens Canada’s sovereignty and economic security. The time to act is now—before it’s too late.
The winner-takes-all nature of FPTP exacerbates regional fractures. The Conservatives’ dominance in Alberta and Liberal strongholds in urban centers like Toronto and Montreal alienate entire regions, breeding resentment and destabilizing national unity. These divisions erode national cohesion, undermining Canada’s ability to address pressing challenges.
Canada’s FPTP system distorts election results and leaves millions feeling disenfranchised. In the 2021 federal election, nearly 50% of votes were wasted, disenfranchising half of Canadians who had no meaningful representation. Smaller parties and their supporters are particularly crushed by FPTP. In 2019, the Green Party won 6.5% of the vote but secured just three seats—under 1% of Parliament. Proportional Representation (PR), where the percentage of votes equals seats in Parliament, would grant them 22 seats, reflecting true voter intent. Similarly, regional voices like the Bloc Québécois face distorted influence, deepening Quebec’s sense of marginalization. Such systemic exclusion risks radicalizing disenfranchised groups, threatening social stability.
Prime Minister Justin Trudeau’s broken 2015 promise to end FPTP deepened public cynicism, yet polls consistently show that most Canadians demand electoral reform. A 2024 Pew study ranks electoral reform as the second-most popular solution to improve democracy, after “better politicians.” Further, 68% of Canadians support transitioning to PR, with even higher backing among younger voters (72%). Despite his 2015 failure, it may not be too late for Trudeau to champion PR legislation. Doing so would not only address a critical democratic deficit but also secure his legacy as a leader who modernized Canada’s governance.
PR fosters coalition governments and collaboration, reducing polarization. Over 80 nations with PR, including Germany and New Zealand, rank higher in governance, transparency, and trust. PR boosts turnout by ensuring every vote counts, restoring faith in institutions and national unity.
Without urgent reform, the nation risks mirroring America’s democratic decay—eroded trust, entrenched polarization, and institutional collapse. Transitioning to Proportional Representation is both a moral obligation and a practical necessity. For political parties, championing this reform represents a strategic opportunity: polls show overwhelming public support for PR, making it a potent issue to mobilize voters and distinguish themselves in the upcoming federal election.
Margaret Raymond, Kaslo, BC,
Ok, here's a test of strategic resolve. Canada is in the process of buying fighter jets from an American supplier. We will probably operate them for 30 years, during which time they will require frequent software updates. The MAGA/FAFO crowd may just be a blip in our relationship, but what if it's not? We selected the jets for interoperability with US forces. If our political and thought leaders believe the relationship has indeed changed, why, for the love of Sir Isaac Brock, would we not review this procurement?
We ought to partner more closely with Japan. Being both sophisticated economies with similar values of peace and cooperation living near superpowers with expansionist ambitions give us similar strategic goals, and they need resources.
Justin Trudeau assures us that there is no business case for your proposal, though.
I published a book going through exactly these arguments and outcomes in June last year, correctly predicting Trump's win and his evocation of National Security to override all other restraints. Dark Watershed: The Breaking of America. (Raspberry Press AB) on Amazon. Try it, you'll like it.
This POSOTUS has basically said that the U.S. is a developer with prime real estate in mind. JFC, even Hitler didn't move this quickly. And, and I don't care if it's repetious, I have been SCREAMING that Canada is a sitting duck between MAGAUSA and RUSSIASA sibce 2016. That the supposedly smart people in gov't and media are only NOW getting the vapors makes me question my intelligence. In that maybe I should share some with the deaf, dumb, and blind leaders of the world who clearly can't see past their next fucking election.
Mr. Gardner, I write to you in appreciation of your various essays on this topic and to express my profound doubt that anything of any substance will occur.
I will use the column that you have provided (which I previously read in the Globe and Mail) in order to "justify" [what a word in this context!] my doubt.
"The development of these resources, particularly energy, strikes some as immoral." I live in Alberta and have seen so, so, so many actions to the detriment of my province. My living memory goes back a long way (I am 74) and starts with the administration of Diefenbaker forward, including the actions of Trudeau, pere, right down to Trudeau, fils. Yes, I speak of the National Energy Program but the war against us started significantly earlier in the time of T1. My point is that this war against Alberta and against energy is ingrained in the governing class of this country [dare I call them the Laurentian elite?]. In any event, I believe firmly that this attitude is so ingrained not only in that class but has become way of life, nay, a religion, a gospel, for so many in Canadian society.
I will put it differently. On a business trip to the US in, oh about 2009, I recall explaining to a US colleague that many Canadians were just absolutely certain (certain, I tell you!) that George W. Bush was just waiting for an excuse to invade Canada. Of course that was a nonsensical opinion of those who held it but it did reflect the knee-jerk anti-Americanism of many Canadians. Notwithstanding that anti-Americanism, Canadians were too smug and, yes, far too lazy to make needed changes. And they still are.
"Mr. Trump’s threats are a national emergency, and should be seen as a call to build the necessary infrastructure as expeditiously as possible by cutting through the bureaucratic and political impediments that have unconscionably stalled Canada’s ability to do big things. Those who argue that we must move beyond resource extraction are far too willing to make a perfect world the enemy of a good one."
Quite frankly, I absolutely do not expect any change from the expectation that we "must" achieve perfection - but without sacrifice - and I further expect that too many Canadians will reject the "good" in favor of aspiring to (but not working toward - except in theoretical policies, including policies against my province) the "perfect."
"None of this suggests we should abandon our values. We can maintain our internationalist approach; we can still champion human rights and do our part to make the world a better place."
The approach of Canadians is to trumpet the "virtue" of our healthcare system (which ranks at about 32 of 50 countries worldwide) and that we are involved in international peacekeeping (we aren't except in the most remote and inconsequential way) and to claim that we "punch above our weight" which is a non-sensical claim of no value. Our current Prime Minister - the flibbertigibbet as you accurately noted - has tried to tell the world of our (non) virtue and asserted a claim to a (non-existent) moral high ground and our chattering classes have entirely bought into this nonsense. So, maintain values, approach, human rights, make the world a better place? It is to laugh simply because we cannot properly do those things here. We need to concentrate on a whole lot of real world things and ignore this feel good nonsense.
"In a 2015 interview shortly after becoming Prime Minister, Justin Trudeau called Canada a “post-national state,” where outdated notions such as national pride and patriotism have less and less place in society." And, where did that leave us? No national pride; no patriotism; no belief in our value as a country. We have admitted at least a gazillion immigrants and an equal number of "permanent" and "temporary" ["temporary" - it is to laugh] residents and they have learned quite quickly that Canada is a way station. We cannot house these folks; we cannot educate their children; we cannot provide adequate employment; we cannot provide adequate medical care - see my comments above!; we simply cannot! We are not a country that has pride, that wants to work, that is willing to do hard things; we are a country that looks for the easy way to slide through. Put differently, a former federal cabinet and subsequent senior civil servant expressed that mindset when he declared before Parliament, "I'm entitled to my entitlements." In other words, the country OWES us something. What rot!
"The strategy we are calling for will require leadership, discipline and long-term focus – traits that have not been much in evidence in Canadian politics for many years."
Hmph! Leadership - none evident in this country. Discipline - the only discipline in Canada is the discipline to borrow and spend more and more money in order to bribe the populace to "vote for us!" but not the discipline to do hard things. Long term focus - sure, if you define long term as the next two months.
My point is that I truly see Canada as a failed state. I mentioned above that I am 74; were I younger I quite expect that I would emigrate - somewhere! - to seek a better life. As it is, mortality tables and common sense tell me that I have a limited number of years left so I will not move. My adult children, however, might. One of them has the skills and contacts to move internationally and he might. The other of my children does not have the requisite skills so she and her family are stuck in this country but even she has seen the writing on that proverbial wall.
I used to be proud to be a Canadian. Proud. I am no longer proud of being a Canadian but I am proud to be an Albertan; I am a Canadian by accident of birth. Quite frankly, being a Canadian is pretty much meaningless today given how diminished our worsers (definitely not our betters!) have made that status.
So, you want to fight DJT; why, I ask, because what is it about the CURRENT Canada - not the past, much diminished memory of Canada that you have - that is truly worth saving?
Bravo and thanks. 🙏
I'm a Canadian and an American. I pay about half my taxes to my province, half to the nation. In the US, it's about 90% to the nation, 10% to my state. The US is strong-center federalism; Canada is balanced federalism (balanced between centralized and decentralized).
I detected a bias towards nationalism in the authors' argument. Be careful about vilifying provincial independence and difference. Talking only about acting more unified, that is, more American, does not play to our strengths.
The smart move for Canada -- the only move, really -- is to use that balance of power between provinces and nation to uplift both.
Leaning towards strong central leadership is a natural human reaction in a crisis. And this is a crisis. But shifting Canada's security posture and presence on the world stage is a long game. And in a long game, building on core strengths wins.
And how is that States' Rights piece working for you now? The best track for Canada is to drop inter-provincial trade barriers while a strong, protective federal government directs and binds the nation together. We need more unity in Canada, and now more than ever.
As for this being a long game...I am not sure about that at all. Mr. Trump is notoriously impulsive and vindictive. As he becomes increasingly frustrated by the limitations to his power, and the incompetence of his administration, he will want to focus on a low hanging fruit to feed his base. It won't be Panama, because that will invoke a global response. I suspect Canada would be the sacrificial lamb.
Thanks for your comment Janet. The State's Rights complaint is a cry for a system closer to Canada's, that they'll never get; therefore, they argue over stupidities because they have no real responsibilities. It's not important (except of course for the people hurt along the way).
If the US was less centralized, people like Trump would be less of a problem. Moving Canada away from decentralization risks Canada having its own Trump-like problems. Better to take our strengths and build on them.
As to a long game, you're right: Trump's drive to incompetence will dowse itself soon enough. But changing Canada's economic and security position in the world looks to me like a very long game. If we want more than just surviving Trump, we need a long view.