I hope Canada and the Canadian people can implement all the suggestions in this article as quickly as possible.
Get moving— please do not squabble.
Musk , with Trump and Republicans help, is quickly dismantling our government.
You have no time to squabble among yourselves.
All government in America is over.
Send people to Asia, Europe , China. As soon as possible. Join NATO. Build your military and buy your weapons elsewhere. Not all made here is as reliable as it once was. We have 2 astronauts in space that can’t return to earth bc of Boeing failure .
Get going— you have very little time.
I hate seeing all that is good about my country disappear, but I live here, saw it coming, and did not vote for it.
Please save yourselves— but hurry.
Republicans are following 2025 to the letter and there is no guarantee that “what use to be our Supreme Court “will not uphold all that is in this decree. And many want Trump to have a 3rd term so he is not going anywhere. Besides, bc of our fractured media, snd voter suppression tactics in Red States— Americans no longer rely on free & fair elections. Just pretty words.
Guys, we are going back to 19th century while rest or world is moving into the future. God and nature moved forward never back-/ but folk here have lost their minds when it comes to that reality.
Canada may not have the time it needs to make all changes, but sending people to other countries can be done in a the a week or less.
From one American citizen who appreciated your friendship, I wish all of you the best.
I do not worry about Canada. Trump's bombast has been a remarkable gift - you just got a remarkable education and much needed kick in the ass. I expect the morale, determination and optimism of your people is rising. You are not actually going to be invaded. Trump isn't in a position to impose tariffs: the fickle American ppl would turn on Trump quickly if the stock market fell and he knows it You have time and resources to make healthier partnerships.
Trump is far weaker politically than most ppl see, IMO. He Is weakening the United States in every dimension. The polarization and strife is going to only grow. The American people will turn on him. He's not even in a position to juice the economy because of debt ceiling.
We're in for a rocky, destructive ride, but Americans will not suffer the coming mess gladly.
When you factor in allies like this writer from the US, Canada has far more than 40 million people on it's side. It would be foolish not to encourage and work with those millions of Americans as economic partners. And the timing is perfect.
Ok. What you are witnessing is the end of a 30 year plan by Republicans to turn America back to all social policies pre 1960.
They played the long game. Got their billionaire backers on board. Had right wing friends buy up all the radio stations in Red states so their messages would overwhelm any other media. Fox News became chief propaganda machine. All they lacked was a master salesman’s to unify their party and push their agenda. They got it in Mr. Trump.
You must understand that Mr. Trump is popular bc he hates what the MAGA hate and addresses there deeply racists grievances.So no.They will not turn against him. They are in his corner to the death.
That is why I warned you that this is not the America you once knew.
You have more tariffs coming. Announced today 2/9/25.
No time for Canadians to long for the past.
If I were prime minister, I would have someone on plane to Japan and rest of Asia to make deals for my steel and aluminum.
Yes. Trade with US. But no longer put all your eggs in our basket.
I agree with almost everything you say. But Trump depends on non-MAGA support, as do the Republican party. Elon's merry band of fascists are NOT popular. Trump is off to a terrible start. The Dems have be willing to fight but I believe they can win. They are in fact waking up.
Hello, I was part of this conversation 2 months ago? And lots have happened since then. Unfortunately, Trump has started a tariff war with your country. What is I am writing about is more serious. Trump is now spreading lies on our media about Canada in order to declare Martial law here and invade your country. Please, please read the post of intelligence officer, Ret. Malcom Vance. He lays it all out. I tried to restack his post to my page. Look out for your upcoming elections, Musk will try to interfere with them the way he did with ours. Also look out for ANYTHING that sounds “ off” to you. Sign that misinformation is being spread. I regret that this is happening, but the people who back Mr. Trump are determined to overturn treaty of 1901 ?? And take your resources. This is not about tariffs ; it is about taking your country. I wish you well.
“This country’s attitude over the past quarter-century was one of — my passport tells me I’m entitled to be blunt — smug complacency.”
As usual, another very good piece. Thank you.
At the same time, can we agree that when we talk about ‘smug complacency’, we are talking about a challenge involving all Canadians and not just the federal government? Too often over the past few years, every time we criticize or suggest there is a problem, Canadians seem to want to put the sole responsibility for the problem’s creation or solution on the federal government.
For example, throughout my 35 years in the diplomatic service, there was a constant effort made to encourage Canadian companies to explore other markets. Nobody would have done so with a sense that Mr. Trump’s mercantilist, gangsterist approach would come to be a threat. Yet, there was always a concern that such strong dependence on the US was a major risk. But, business decisions are not directed by government, be it federal or provincial, and there were always limits to how much pressure and policy direction could be applied to shift such decisions. And at no time over the 80s-90s-00s would it likely have made sense for many with a good contract in Cleveland to devote seed money and effort to seeking business opportunity in Indonesia or Brazil.
On other issues such as defence spending, it makes sense to attribute a more direct responsibility to the federal government, but even here it is clear that public sentiment was rarely in favour of such spending. And to continue to maintain electoral support, governments made little effort to make the case to Canadians or explain why it might ultimately be important.
Absolutely! My comments were (very broad-brush generalization) about Canadians. Not any government or even the whole political class. The underfunding of the military was, I would argue, mostly a reflection of domestic politics, not elite failure. Politicians gave us what we wanted. And what we wanted was dangerously shortsighted.
The situation is so ‘wicked’ that we are not likely choosing between any of their options 1, 2, or 3. Rather, we will be doing all three simultaneously depending on our analysis of risk and benefit.
Ideally, we would place a much greater emphasis on option three than we have in the past and Canadians will come with because Mr. Trump has made such actions advantageous, even popular. But the other options will still be front and centre in the immediate future in the face of his threats, taunts and attacks.
Hope we really have the ability to chew gum while walking, running, jumping, dodging, deflecting and so on.
We ought to partner more closely with Japan. Being both sophisticated economies with similar values of peace and cooperation living near superpowers with expansionist ambitions give us similar strategic goals, and they need resources.
They missed the biggest in my opinion. We are wilderness state, possibly the last one on a rapidly shrinking planet. Every Canadian feels the wilderness just to the north. It's the single unifying element common regardless where you live. Good branding - such as turning Algonquin into a true wilderness park and very large national parks where hunting is banned but photography is facilitated. Environment
Management would be our expertise and world class ecotourism an industry that can't be stolen, copied or trained. Very telling that none of your writers even mentioned this.
We should absolutely do that. But until we deal with the very real threats to Canada's sovereignty as outlined in the articles above, it is pointless to focus on parks development. It is all very well to make beautiful music, but not on the tilting deck of the Titanic.
More, bigger parks with only a few e o tourists (so as to not disturb the animals) is no way to grow an economy or to gain greater independence from USA.
Thanks for the piece, it’s a wake up call to be sure - one quibble though, NATO is already effectively dead and gone. Article V is the backbone of the treaty, and it is clearly without teeth at this point. No US to back up Article V = no NATO in any real sense as a deterrent. The attack on western democracies is from without and from within.
European NATO + Canada is more than strong enough to face down Russia, in the event this becomes necessary. Canada’s GDP alone is approximately equivalent to Russia’s. An attack from America is a different issue, but we should be able to support Ukraine and defend Estonia even without American help.
I entirely agree. One one consequence of the free ride Europeans and Canadians have taken on American security guarantees is a belittling self-perception. “Only the Americans can do it” is now a reflex. We need to break that habit and realize again our own strength. And act on our principles.
European + Canada appetite to go it alone is suspect at best, and while possible against Russia in the short term, it has no long term viability. NATO relies on the US umbrella to have any real teeth, to suggests otherwise misunderstands and misinterprets how NATO has functioned. Appeasement to the aggressor is a far more likely outcome at this juncture than is NATO resolve. You can disagree, but I certainly have no faith in a non-US led NATO “stepping up” to meet the moment.
And you note the other problem in your comment, whither a US attack on a NATO partner, be it Greenland (Denmark), Canada or another in some kind of nouveau imperialism. This is no longer a far fetched proposition, but a real threat. NATO is incapable of surviving an event like this.
So I’ll repeat, until proven otherwise, NATO is functionally dead.
I take your points but think you exaggerate. Several of our European partners still have significant militaries. Pooled, our assets are considerable. And many European weapons manufacturers are top tier, with designs that are absolutely cutting edge. Our free riding may have taught us a sort of learned helplessness, and that's our primary problem. But worldviews, fortunately, can change a lot faster than weapons can be designed and built.
One point not raised in our earlier conversation, but bears discussion now given Trump is selling Ukraine down the river and clearly strengthening ties to Russia - NATO works by consensus. The US can effectively render NATO toothless by going against consensus whenever it wishes. So the remaining NATO countries would need to abrogate NATO and reconstitute it without US involvement. Hard to believe this is achievable.
And just to add - what I would certainly suggest is perhaps less that NATO is stronger than we think, and more that our adversaries are weaker than we give them credit for - whether Russia or China or other. They are also not in a position of strength.
Fair enough and noted - and I absolutely don’t disagree with the argument about feeling more helpless than we perhaps are. That being said, I don’t think I’m exaggerating, and we do need to be realistic. We will find out soon enough, because whether it’s self-perceived or not, enemies of the western world definitely smell blood and will look to take advantage. The Bretton Woods era is predicated on US global security and protection. It is a core requirement - how it looks without that is anyone’s guess. My confidence in NATO is not as strong I guess.
With a population of nearly 750 million, Europe is more than twice the size of the USA and five times the size of economically moribund Russia. The only reason Europe - all on their lonesome - couldn't muster an effective deterrent to puny Putin in Ukraine prior to 2014 is that they have the same attitude to military defense as Canada has: let the Yanks spend their lives and treasure defending the world. It was always foolish for Europe to depend upon an ally half its size and an ocean away for its defense. No American president was entirely happy with this; the only difference now is that Trump is doing something about it. Our cowardice, negligence, and self-serving cheapskateness has come back to haunt us. It's long past time we woke up. Nothing like a "gangster" to turn self-righteous peaceniks into military realists. We owe Trump a debt of gratitude for that.
1) this is the global order the US original envisioned when they made the offer at Bretton Woods - one can argue the emotion of this, but let’s not rewrite history in some misguided understanding of what transpired. The deal was US led security in exchange for a US led trading system. It was a good deal, and US Presidents have all recognized this until now. Have other countries let their own defence and security lag? Absolutely. Do we need to pivot quickly? Also absolutely. But don’t rewrite what actually happened.
2) I agree that what Trump is doing is waking us all up. It is an opportunity. But we need to take it, and not remain complacent or appease his wishes.
3) we need to be careful to disaggregate capability with willingness. Is Europe capable? Absolutely. Are they willing? That’s an entirely different question. Which leads to the final point I’ll make.
4) Europe is not a cohesive monolith speaking with one voice. Italy has moved to the right, and France, Germany and the UK are all within a hairs breath of electing far right leaning parties. Is there still time for that to wane? Sure. But how does NATO look with LaPen, the AfD and other far right parties calling the shots?
I’m not trying to be pessimistic, but the challenges are greater than folks seem to realize. And getting back to the original point of the post - NATO is in deep trouble. True leaders need to step up.
The US may have championed the rules-based international order that it established after 1945, but it hardly abided by it. Just ask Salvador Allende, if you can get him out of his grave. Why do you think they never signed on to the Rome Statute?
It's just that they didn't talk about it, and they didn't focus their more criminal tendencies on Canada.
Ok, here's a test of strategic resolve. Canada is in the process of buying fighter jets from an American supplier. We will probably operate them for 30 years, during which time they will require frequent software updates. The MAGA/FAFO crowd may just be a blip in our relationship, but what if it's not? We selected the jets for interoperability with US forces. If our political and thought leaders believe the relationship has indeed changed, why, for the love of Sir Isaac Brock, would we not review this procurement?
Couldn’t agree more with any of this. I just feel obliged to keep pointing to one glaring facet of the remedy that seems to be mostly absent from the discussion:
Housing and land use policy.
We can no longer afford the excessively restrictive and disparate policies in this domain that weaken our economic resilience and social fabric. The same zeal we’re now seeing for addressing internal trade must be extended to rationalizing and harmonizing the laws, regulations and processes that govern the building of housing and businesses.
As the writers put it:
“Mr. Trump’s threats are a national emergency, and should be seen as a call to build the necessary infrastructure as expeditiously as possible by cutting through the bureaucratic and political impediments that have unconscionably stalled Canada’s ability to do big things.”
Dan, I dropped 3 substacks a few months back when I realized that "too much news" (and way too much commenting) was bad for my mental health. But then the last month happened, and I got into approach-retreat reactions with news like an addiction.
The gap was filled by doomscrolling substack's suddenly-busy "Notes" feature, and all your content. Thanks for that, and I've just subscribed again to Justin Ling, and now to you. I'm hoping I can keep my screaming brain under control. It's by-the-month for now.
I'd only read the Notes until today, but I really like this column, agree with every word.
I can't decide whether to drop my "nuclear" nuttiness (that's how it's being taken), or if I just have to keep screaming "aaaaahh!! Are you all blind? You really think "oh, he won't do *that*" ?
I put my nightmare on Notes just now:
1) Demand for payback for 80 years of "Nuclear protection", arbitrary figure named, natural resources will be the payment.
2) Canada says "we had no say in that umbrella and you needed it either way, and we'll just get out own nukes now";
3) Trump says "You getting nukes is an existential threat to America, I'll invade if you try, this is just like Iraq".
I think >50% of America would approve that and the military would accept the orders.
So the only SAFE time to make the decision is right away.
It’s absolutely correct that we need to get rid of our complacency and refocus on our national project in a way that’s productive for all Canadians. It’s hard to assess the threat level from the US - Stephen Marche in Macleans and Timothy Snyder here have both written of the inherent weaknesses of Trump and his approach. But that doesn’t mean we should stand still. This Canadian is shook.
BRICS IS THE PATHWAY TO SOVEREIGNTY FOR CANADA . We made China a ECONOMIC POWER by exploiting their Cheap Labour and lack of Regulations. The Chinese government used GOVERNMENT CONTROLLED CAPITALISM to enrich the CHINESE PEOPLE ECONOMICALLY,EDUCATIONALLY.
United States of America is the real threat. Not China or Russia. Chinese/Russian Ships Navigate through International Waters. Only Canadian Trump Fans will buy into Trumps BULLSHIT.
To me CHINA /RUSSIA is not a THREAT to CANADA. This THREAT IS MADE UP BY FASCIST AMERICA. China was useful for Canadian/American MANUFACTURING CORPORATIONS when we exploited there CHEAP LABOUR AND LACK OF REGULATIONS. Now with CHINESE GOVERNMENT CONTROL OF CORPORATIONS. They become a ECONOMIC POWER OVERSHADOWING THE U.S and Canada’s Economies . Now with BRICS AND BRI. The Chinese are now investing with GLOBAL SOUTH,MIDDLE EAST AND ASIA LEAVING WESTERN CORPORATE FASCISTS. BRICS AND BRI allow member States to TRADE WITH THEIR OWN CURRENCIES. Allowing them to by pass buying USD for Trade, if they wish to. This gives COUNTRIES ECONOMIC,FINANCIAL ,GOVERNMENTAL SOVEREIGNTY. GIVES THEM NATIONAL SECURITY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.
Western governments don’t allow this.
BRICS AND BRI WILL OPEN UP GREATER TRADE AND ECONOMIC,FINANCIAL SECURITY FOR CANADA. The USA cannot be trusted as a RELIABLE TRADING PARTNER. The USA use any FREE TRADE WITH ALLIES AS A WEAPON.
Time for CANADIAN GOVERNMENT TO REALIZE THIS
A secured Relationship with America? There is no such thing as Secure Relationship. America is a FOREIGN FASCIST COUNTRY THAT BELIEVES IN DOMINATING THE WORLD. No matter the cost. Allies or Adversaries all are ENEMIES TO THE USA. Sanctions,Tariffs,MILITARY INTERVENTIONS,PROXY WARS, COUPS is what AMERICAN FASCISTS THRIVE ON, even at the SUFFERING OF THEIR OWN CITIZENS. International Law,World Rule Based Order,HUMAN RIGHTS , SOVEREIGNTY OF OTHER COUNTRIES ( Canadian Values) are not visible or followed by Fascist America . Unless those values are construed for their FASCIST NEEDS AND DOMINANCE OVER ADVERSARIES OR ALLIES .
I hope Canada and the Canadian people can implement all the suggestions in this article as quickly as possible.
Get moving— please do not squabble.
Musk , with Trump and Republicans help, is quickly dismantling our government.
You have no time to squabble among yourselves.
All government in America is over.
Send people to Asia, Europe , China. As soon as possible. Join NATO. Build your military and buy your weapons elsewhere. Not all made here is as reliable as it once was. We have 2 astronauts in space that can’t return to earth bc of Boeing failure .
Get going— you have very little time.
I hate seeing all that is good about my country disappear, but I live here, saw it coming, and did not vote for it.
Please save yourselves— but hurry.
Republicans are following 2025 to the letter and there is no guarantee that “what use to be our Supreme Court “will not uphold all that is in this decree. And many want Trump to have a 3rd term so he is not going anywhere. Besides, bc of our fractured media, snd voter suppression tactics in Red States— Americans no longer rely on free & fair elections. Just pretty words.
Guys, we are going back to 19th century while rest or world is moving into the future. God and nature moved forward never back-/ but folk here have lost their minds when it comes to that reality.
Canada may not have the time it needs to make all changes, but sending people to other countries can be done in a the a week or less.
From one American citizen who appreciated your friendship, I wish all of you the best.
Be free. Truly free.
I do not worry about Canada. Trump's bombast has been a remarkable gift - you just got a remarkable education and much needed kick in the ass. I expect the morale, determination and optimism of your people is rising. You are not actually going to be invaded. Trump isn't in a position to impose tariffs: the fickle American ppl would turn on Trump quickly if the stock market fell and he knows it You have time and resources to make healthier partnerships.
It's the Europeans fate I worry about.
Oooh!!! I think Europe is much better off than Canada. There is an ocean between us and them.
Ru is much more dangerous than the U.S.
Trump is far weaker politically than most ppl see, IMO. He Is weakening the United States in every dimension. The polarization and strife is going to only grow. The American people will turn on him. He's not even in a position to juice the economy because of debt ceiling.
We're in for a rocky, destructive ride, but Americans will not suffer the coming mess gladly.
Canada and its people have generously provided refuge and care to many people fleeing horrific conditions.
I wrote all I wrote today bc you deserve the care that you have given to so many.
Think what you will.
I am just sharing observations from having lived here all my life.
Just please look out for your country’s interests and do it soon.
🩷
You must believe that huge numbers of Americans are ruled by media driven culture wars which lead them to vote against their own interests.
This country has changed.
Do the hard work and do more east- west trading.
You can trade here if you want— but do not be dependent on us for anything.
You will be glad you made these changes going forward.
When you factor in allies like this writer from the US, Canada has far more than 40 million people on it's side. It would be foolish not to encourage and work with those millions of Americans as economic partners. And the timing is perfect.
From what I see happening here, I want to see Canada totally independent from US .
This place is no longer stable and Mr. Trump has proven this to us and to the world.
Democrats told Americans that this would happen but they chose not to believe them.
Look out for hate literature being smuggled to your country from here.
Such hate and hate media has severely damaged our country and it— unlike in your country- is protected here and normalized.
Unfortunately, we are dangerous neighbors.
Become as independent as possible from us and build your military. Look out for Number 1– Canada !!
The U.S. will deal with its fascism flirtation. The Canada-U.S. happy relationship can be rebuilt. Hopefully in my lifetime.
Ok. What you are witnessing is the end of a 30 year plan by Republicans to turn America back to all social policies pre 1960.
They played the long game. Got their billionaire backers on board. Had right wing friends buy up all the radio stations in Red states so their messages would overwhelm any other media. Fox News became chief propaganda machine. All they lacked was a master salesman’s to unify their party and push their agenda. They got it in Mr. Trump.
You must understand that Mr. Trump is popular bc he hates what the MAGA hate and addresses there deeply racists grievances.So no.They will not turn against him. They are in his corner to the death.
That is why I warned you that this is not the America you once knew.
You have more tariffs coming. Announced today 2/9/25.
No time for Canadians to long for the past.
If I were prime minister, I would have someone on plane to Japan and rest of Asia to make deals for my steel and aluminum.
Yes. Trade with US. But no longer put all your eggs in our basket.
Be well.
I agree with almost everything you say. But Trump depends on non-MAGA support, as do the Republican party. Elon's merry band of fascists are NOT popular. Trump is off to a terrible start. The Dems have be willing to fight but I believe they can win. They are in fact waking up.
Ok. We will see.
Take care.
Hello, I was part of this conversation 2 months ago? And lots have happened since then. Unfortunately, Trump has started a tariff war with your country. What is I am writing about is more serious. Trump is now spreading lies on our media about Canada in order to declare Martial law here and invade your country. Please, please read the post of intelligence officer, Ret. Malcom Vance. He lays it all out. I tried to restack his post to my page. Look out for your upcoming elections, Musk will try to interfere with them the way he did with ours. Also look out for ANYTHING that sounds “ off” to you. Sign that misinformation is being spread. I regret that this is happening, but the people who back Mr. Trump are determined to overturn treaty of 1901 ?? And take your resources. This is not about tariffs ; it is about taking your country. I wish you well.
“This country’s attitude over the past quarter-century was one of — my passport tells me I’m entitled to be blunt — smug complacency.”
As usual, another very good piece. Thank you.
At the same time, can we agree that when we talk about ‘smug complacency’, we are talking about a challenge involving all Canadians and not just the federal government? Too often over the past few years, every time we criticize or suggest there is a problem, Canadians seem to want to put the sole responsibility for the problem’s creation or solution on the federal government.
For example, throughout my 35 years in the diplomatic service, there was a constant effort made to encourage Canadian companies to explore other markets. Nobody would have done so with a sense that Mr. Trump’s mercantilist, gangsterist approach would come to be a threat. Yet, there was always a concern that such strong dependence on the US was a major risk. But, business decisions are not directed by government, be it federal or provincial, and there were always limits to how much pressure and policy direction could be applied to shift such decisions. And at no time over the 80s-90s-00s would it likely have made sense for many with a good contract in Cleveland to devote seed money and effort to seeking business opportunity in Indonesia or Brazil.
On other issues such as defence spending, it makes sense to attribute a more direct responsibility to the federal government, but even here it is clear that public sentiment was rarely in favour of such spending. And to continue to maintain electoral support, governments made little effort to make the case to Canadians or explain why it might ultimately be important.
Absolutely! My comments were (very broad-brush generalization) about Canadians. Not any government or even the whole political class. The underfunding of the military was, I would argue, mostly a reflection of domestic politics, not elite failure. Politicians gave us what we wanted. And what we wanted was dangerously shortsighted.
Also, the very thoughtful article you shared by Jones, Lagassé and Petrolekas reminded me of this editorial cartoon re-shared today by Adam Grant
https://substack.com/@adamgrant/note/c-92222173?r=1i17n&utm_medium=ios&utm_source=notes-share-action
The situation is so ‘wicked’ that we are not likely choosing between any of their options 1, 2, or 3. Rather, we will be doing all three simultaneously depending on our analysis of risk and benefit.
Ideally, we would place a much greater emphasis on option three than we have in the past and Canadians will come with because Mr. Trump has made such actions advantageous, even popular. But the other options will still be front and centre in the immediate future in the face of his threats, taunts and attacks.
Hope we really have the ability to chew gum while walking, running, jumping, dodging, deflecting and so on.
We ought to partner more closely with Japan. Being both sophisticated economies with similar values of peace and cooperation living near superpowers with expansionist ambitions give us similar strategic goals, and they need resources.
Justin Trudeau assures us that there is no business case for your proposal, though.
They missed the biggest in my opinion. We are wilderness state, possibly the last one on a rapidly shrinking planet. Every Canadian feels the wilderness just to the north. It's the single unifying element common regardless where you live. Good branding - such as turning Algonquin into a true wilderness park and very large national parks where hunting is banned but photography is facilitated. Environment
Management would be our expertise and world class ecotourism an industry that can't be stolen, copied or trained. Very telling that none of your writers even mentioned this.
We should absolutely do that. But until we deal with the very real threats to Canada's sovereignty as outlined in the articles above, it is pointless to focus on parks development. It is all very well to make beautiful music, but not on the tilting deck of the Titanic.
More, bigger parks with only a few e o tourists (so as to not disturb the animals) is no way to grow an economy or to gain greater independence from USA.
I appreciate reading your perspective from across the border. Refreshing.
Thanks for the piece, it’s a wake up call to be sure - one quibble though, NATO is already effectively dead and gone. Article V is the backbone of the treaty, and it is clearly without teeth at this point. No US to back up Article V = no NATO in any real sense as a deterrent. The attack on western democracies is from without and from within.
European NATO + Canada is more than strong enough to face down Russia, in the event this becomes necessary. Canada’s GDP alone is approximately equivalent to Russia’s. An attack from America is a different issue, but we should be able to support Ukraine and defend Estonia even without American help.
I entirely agree. One one consequence of the free ride Europeans and Canadians have taken on American security guarantees is a belittling self-perception. “Only the Americans can do it” is now a reflex. We need to break that habit and realize again our own strength. And act on our principles.
Ukraine has lost the war. Trump is negotiating the terms of their surrender.
European + Canada appetite to go it alone is suspect at best, and while possible against Russia in the short term, it has no long term viability. NATO relies on the US umbrella to have any real teeth, to suggests otherwise misunderstands and misinterprets how NATO has functioned. Appeasement to the aggressor is a far more likely outcome at this juncture than is NATO resolve. You can disagree, but I certainly have no faith in a non-US led NATO “stepping up” to meet the moment.
And you note the other problem in your comment, whither a US attack on a NATO partner, be it Greenland (Denmark), Canada or another in some kind of nouveau imperialism. This is no longer a far fetched proposition, but a real threat. NATO is incapable of surviving an event like this.
So I’ll repeat, until proven otherwise, NATO is functionally dead.
I take your points but think you exaggerate. Several of our European partners still have significant militaries. Pooled, our assets are considerable. And many European weapons manufacturers are top tier, with designs that are absolutely cutting edge. Our free riding may have taught us a sort of learned helplessness, and that's our primary problem. But worldviews, fortunately, can change a lot faster than weapons can be designed and built.
One point not raised in our earlier conversation, but bears discussion now given Trump is selling Ukraine down the river and clearly strengthening ties to Russia - NATO works by consensus. The US can effectively render NATO toothless by going against consensus whenever it wishes. So the remaining NATO countries would need to abrogate NATO and reconstitute it without US involvement. Hard to believe this is achievable.
And just to add - what I would certainly suggest is perhaps less that NATO is stronger than we think, and more that our adversaries are weaker than we give them credit for - whether Russia or China or other. They are also not in a position of strength.
Fair enough and noted - and I absolutely don’t disagree with the argument about feeling more helpless than we perhaps are. That being said, I don’t think I’m exaggerating, and we do need to be realistic. We will find out soon enough, because whether it’s self-perceived or not, enemies of the western world definitely smell blood and will look to take advantage. The Bretton Woods era is predicated on US global security and protection. It is a core requirement - how it looks without that is anyone’s guess. My confidence in NATO is not as strong I guess.
With a population of nearly 750 million, Europe is more than twice the size of the USA and five times the size of economically moribund Russia. The only reason Europe - all on their lonesome - couldn't muster an effective deterrent to puny Putin in Ukraine prior to 2014 is that they have the same attitude to military defense as Canada has: let the Yanks spend their lives and treasure defending the world. It was always foolish for Europe to depend upon an ally half its size and an ocean away for its defense. No American president was entirely happy with this; the only difference now is that Trump is doing something about it. Our cowardice, negligence, and self-serving cheapskateness has come back to haunt us. It's long past time we woke up. Nothing like a "gangster" to turn self-righteous peaceniks into military realists. We owe Trump a debt of gratitude for that.
A couple of points:
1) this is the global order the US original envisioned when they made the offer at Bretton Woods - one can argue the emotion of this, but let’s not rewrite history in some misguided understanding of what transpired. The deal was US led security in exchange for a US led trading system. It was a good deal, and US Presidents have all recognized this until now. Have other countries let their own defence and security lag? Absolutely. Do we need to pivot quickly? Also absolutely. But don’t rewrite what actually happened.
2) I agree that what Trump is doing is waking us all up. It is an opportunity. But we need to take it, and not remain complacent or appease his wishes.
3) we need to be careful to disaggregate capability with willingness. Is Europe capable? Absolutely. Are they willing? That’s an entirely different question. Which leads to the final point I’ll make.
4) Europe is not a cohesive monolith speaking with one voice. Italy has moved to the right, and France, Germany and the UK are all within a hairs breath of electing far right leaning parties. Is there still time for that to wane? Sure. But how does NATO look with LaPen, the AfD and other far right parties calling the shots?
I’m not trying to be pessimistic, but the challenges are greater than folks seem to realize. And getting back to the original point of the post - NATO is in deep trouble. True leaders need to step up.
The US may have championed the rules-based international order that it established after 1945, but it hardly abided by it. Just ask Salvador Allende, if you can get him out of his grave. Why do you think they never signed on to the Rome Statute?
It's just that they didn't talk about it, and they didn't focus their more criminal tendencies on Canada.
Announce Canada is going to invite Washington to become the 11th province. I think there would be a lot of interest
Ok, here's a test of strategic resolve. Canada is in the process of buying fighter jets from an American supplier. We will probably operate them for 30 years, during which time they will require frequent software updates. The MAGA/FAFO crowd may just be a blip in our relationship, but what if it's not? We selected the jets for interoperability with US forces. If our political and thought leaders believe the relationship has indeed changed, why, for the love of Sir Isaac Brock, would we not review this procurement?
Great read. We have choices and, with the right leadership, this can be one of Canada’s greatest opportunities!
Couldn’t agree more with any of this. I just feel obliged to keep pointing to one glaring facet of the remedy that seems to be mostly absent from the discussion:
Housing and land use policy.
We can no longer afford the excessively restrictive and disparate policies in this domain that weaken our economic resilience and social fabric. The same zeal we’re now seeing for addressing internal trade must be extended to rationalizing and harmonizing the laws, regulations and processes that govern the building of housing and businesses.
As the writers put it:
“Mr. Trump’s threats are a national emergency, and should be seen as a call to build the necessary infrastructure as expeditiously as possible by cutting through the bureaucratic and political impediments that have unconscionably stalled Canada’s ability to do big things.”
Dan, I dropped 3 substacks a few months back when I realized that "too much news" (and way too much commenting) was bad for my mental health. But then the last month happened, and I got into approach-retreat reactions with news like an addiction.
The gap was filled by doomscrolling substack's suddenly-busy "Notes" feature, and all your content. Thanks for that, and I've just subscribed again to Justin Ling, and now to you. I'm hoping I can keep my screaming brain under control. It's by-the-month for now.
I'd only read the Notes until today, but I really like this column, agree with every word.
I can't decide whether to drop my "nuclear" nuttiness (that's how it's being taken), or if I just have to keep screaming "aaaaahh!! Are you all blind? You really think "oh, he won't do *that*" ?
I put my nightmare on Notes just now:
1) Demand for payback for 80 years of "Nuclear protection", arbitrary figure named, natural resources will be the payment.
2) Canada says "we had no say in that umbrella and you needed it either way, and we'll just get out own nukes now";
3) Trump says "You getting nukes is an existential threat to America, I'll invade if you try, this is just like Iraq".
I think >50% of America would approve that and the military would accept the orders.
So the only SAFE time to make the decision is right away.
It’s absolutely correct that we need to get rid of our complacency and refocus on our national project in a way that’s productive for all Canadians. It’s hard to assess the threat level from the US - Stephen Marche in Macleans and Timothy Snyder here have both written of the inherent weaknesses of Trump and his approach. But that doesn’t mean we should stand still. This Canadian is shook.
BRICS IS THE PATHWAY TO SOVEREIGNTY FOR CANADA . We made China a ECONOMIC POWER by exploiting their Cheap Labour and lack of Regulations. The Chinese government used GOVERNMENT CONTROLLED CAPITALISM to enrich the CHINESE PEOPLE ECONOMICALLY,EDUCATIONALLY.
United States of America is the real threat. Not China or Russia. Chinese/Russian Ships Navigate through International Waters. Only Canadian Trump Fans will buy into Trumps BULLSHIT.
To me CHINA /RUSSIA is not a THREAT to CANADA. This THREAT IS MADE UP BY FASCIST AMERICA. China was useful for Canadian/American MANUFACTURING CORPORATIONS when we exploited there CHEAP LABOUR AND LACK OF REGULATIONS. Now with CHINESE GOVERNMENT CONTROL OF CORPORATIONS. They become a ECONOMIC POWER OVERSHADOWING THE U.S and Canada’s Economies . Now with BRICS AND BRI. The Chinese are now investing with GLOBAL SOUTH,MIDDLE EAST AND ASIA LEAVING WESTERN CORPORATE FASCISTS. BRICS AND BRI allow member States to TRADE WITH THEIR OWN CURRENCIES. Allowing them to by pass buying USD for Trade, if they wish to. This gives COUNTRIES ECONOMIC,FINANCIAL ,GOVERNMENTAL SOVEREIGNTY. GIVES THEM NATIONAL SECURITY AND TERRITORIAL INTEGRITY.
Western governments don’t allow this.
BRICS AND BRI WILL OPEN UP GREATER TRADE AND ECONOMIC,FINANCIAL SECURITY FOR CANADA. The USA cannot be trusted as a RELIABLE TRADING PARTNER. The USA use any FREE TRADE WITH ALLIES AS A WEAPON.
Time for CANADIAN GOVERNMENT TO REALIZE THIS
A secured Relationship with America? There is no such thing as Secure Relationship. America is a FOREIGN FASCIST COUNTRY THAT BELIEVES IN DOMINATING THE WORLD. No matter the cost. Allies or Adversaries all are ENEMIES TO THE USA. Sanctions,Tariffs,MILITARY INTERVENTIONS,PROXY WARS, COUPS is what AMERICAN FASCISTS THRIVE ON, even at the SUFFERING OF THEIR OWN CITIZENS. International Law,World Rule Based Order,HUMAN RIGHTS , SOVEREIGNTY OF OTHER COUNTRIES ( Canadian Values) are not visible or followed by Fascist America . Unless those values are construed for their FASCIST NEEDS AND DOMINANCE OVER ADVERSARIES OR ALLIES .
You must make a strong, independent Canada. There are many Americans on your side and right now there are many of us that wish we were Canadians.
I wonder if a Convicted Felon could be arrested if trying to to enter Canada?