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I've always liked Nostradamus and his predictions - they basically boil down to - Two men will fight, one will win. As for Russia and Ukraine, fighting over profits from resource extraction is as old as literature at least.

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This was entertaining.

Just the other day I was taking a taxi to the airport and my driver and I were talking about contemporary punditry and he said “I think the quality of commentary would be much higher if authors were more interested in being up front about uncertainty not to mention the second order effects of their big policy prescriptions but alas that probably wouldn’t sell as many books”

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