This is a truly well-balanced and dispassionate assessment of the existing international system, its costs and benefits, including for the United States. I admire the cool-headed analysis in the heat of the times. For one, you capture ably some of the hypocrisies I used to encounter as an American diplomat, with certain friendly nations (who shall remain unnamed) asking the United States to pay for and do the dirty work and then complaining about how bad we smelled (with shit all over us) when we were foolish enough to do it. (A self-interested analysis, I know, but just saying). Totally agree about the benefits, hidden and open, that accrue to the leader, including the power to frame US national interests as applying more broadly to everyone, even when the argument was a bit of a stretch.
The only quibble I have, and it really is only a quibble, is the somewhat dismissive reference to soft power, as though this were a trifling matter of importance only to effete diplomats. While I totally agree that a trucker in Topeka (or Fresno or Galveston or Grand Junction for that matter) has no reason to care, I think Americans as a group do, or should. Rightly or wrongly, some of us who used to represent the United States (proudly) overseas, believed that the greatness of our power (if you agree) was inseparable from our being good (or at least trying to). Once we abandon even that pretense (shared prosperity, human rights, stability, let's just make money together, the pursuit of happiness, we're in this thing together, bla, bla, bla), we really are no different or better than Putin or Xi Jin Ping. So if raw "hard" power is the only metric that matters, then the political-strategic calculation changes radically for most others, including Canada (which I don't need to tell you). Is it possible that our mad king president (who presumably doesn't think deeply about such things with his dominant lizard brain) sees your country as Putin sees Ukraine? If so, by God, that changes everything.
Thanks for commenting, Alexis. And thanks for giving me an opportunity to clarify: My comment about soft power was merely meant to reflect the thinking of the people I was discussing. Personally, I think soft power is real, important, and redounds to the benefit of America and Americans in a thousand different ways that aren't obvious but are nonetheless significant.
Time to start digging trenches then, and laying down mines. I can’t even believe I might write this, even if (only) partly in jest. I used to make jokes with Canadian friends and counterparts about the great danger we faced from the fierce foe at our northern border. Reality (if this is reality) really is stranger than fiction.
Did anyone ever go wrong assuming the worst about that man? Trying to figure out a strategy to work around his obsession seems futile. We prepare ourselves for the worst but hope the house of cards collapses before things get there. I’m sorry about what all this means to decent Americans too.
I’m right there with you on both counts. Wait for the storm to pass, for the house of cards to collapse… The problem is that he has survived a lot longer than most of us expected, including after the open mayhem he unleashed on January 6. After that, like a bacteria strain that was not fully snuffed out by the antibiotics (the Senate did not approve the merited impeachments), he has surged back stronger than ever. Does that mean he is unstoppable? Before I would have said “no”, but now I’m not so sure. The best hope we have on this score is a third and decisive impeachment, and for a critical mass of the Republican party to be on board this time. But I’m not holding my breath. Nor am I apologizing to Canadian (and other) friends anymore… What use is it? We Americans did this to ourselves so, presumably, we deserve it. But does the world (whose voters had no say in the matter) deserve to go down with us? That is a good question.
I’m sorry, but Trump is not collapsing. He has right wing evangelicals, white supermacists and many who live in the fantasies of conspiracy theories and lies.
Universities, research, media who hold to facts did not start fighting for facts, knowledges and education when Alex Stones started Infowars, Qanon his conspiracy theories, white supermacist their violence. You have lost because you did not intervened big tech’s business i.e the flow of useless information as well as the flow of goods and services. Now all social media is full of shit. Your youth looks hours of Tiktok’s suicide and murder videos. Simply you can’t handel the situatio, because because the huge part of information industry is not regulated. An ignorant and uneducated and population is completely vulnerable to bad influences.
Maybe. Or I may be expressing myself poorly…or being flip about a matter that merits more seriousness. About six months ago, not long after joining substack, I published a post about giving foreigners a voice in US elections. Because foreign policy plays virtually NO role in the presidential elections themselves (most Americans don’t give a damn, for good or ill) while the election results can have a MAJOR impact on US foreign policy and, by extension, the world, it would be logical. Recalling the comments from foreign counterparts to that effect in different countries I served, I wondered whether by rights the US shouldn’t give foreigners some say in our elections. The interests of foreigners should somehow be reflected or taken into account. From a non American perspective, it is not fair or democratic to have decisions made about your fate by American voters who don’t even know enough to know they don’t care. That’s what I was trying to get at, clumsily.
Nailed it. Exactly the way I feel. I wonder about the “We”, though, and the “we Canadians“ in your first comment. Maybe I’m spending too much time reading on the internet, and I need to get out to talk to my neighbours more. But I don’t sense that most are thinking and evaluating enough to have gotten that far. Yet.
"Is it possible that our mad king president sees (Canada) as Putin sees Ukraine?"
Canadian here. Yes, that's exactly what many of us think. We're supportive of Ukraine, but a lot of us worry we're going to BE Ukraine in about six months, except with less strategic depth, fewer allies, and an even more powerful enemy. (we'll never be the 51st state though, because we'll never be allowed to vote).
Canada has been happily allied with the United States for decades (and yes, as Dan says, there might have been an element of free riding there). When push comes to shove we're happy to go along with the US because *we share values* with them. Or we did, anyway. Suddenly that has changed. We don't *want* to be the ally of this deranged tyrant who talks about annexing Greenland. Who the hell is this guy? As you say, we may as well ally with China... what difference does it make?
I agree the soft power element of Pax Americana has always been of great (but subtle) importance! It provided something for other nations to strive for. Thugs like putin and Xi feared American soft power and its influence. Such a shame! The free world hates you now, while cruel dictators grin and smirk.
I think you’re right. I’ve been hoping some would. And you can be damn sure I’d have them!
I know you are discussing such an eventuality (partly) in jest. But I am serious. It’s almost unthinkable. But I think Donald is pretty determined to have our resources and our territory. As a bonus, he would be delighted to be the man who realized manifest destiny.
I hope his house of cards collapses first, to use Marsha’s words.
Another way of the hot war nightmare being avoided, which also concerns me greatly, is that Canadian leadership concedes to arrangements so sweeping that they make our sovereignty almost meaningless. I don’t know what that would look like, but at a certain point bullets might be better.
Thanks for your thoughts, again. So well expressed and from your experienced perspective, I really appreciate them. (Half a mark off for “dominant lizard brain”! A quibble even smaller than yours with Dan. Haha.)
I imagine discussions of this quality are occurring in many places. I hope the thoughts and thinking in those discussions and this one are seeping out, spreading, growing …
Good for you to be a polite Canadian and leave out that Canada is ‘reviewing’ it’s F-35 order and will probably switch to Sweden’s Gripen - with the planes actually built in Canada. More Canadian and European jobs. Less American jobs. The Gripens can keep the Canadian border safe from a Southern or Northern invasion.
Nothing can really be decided until after an election. I think we (Canada) are only legally on the hook for the first 16 planes. The purchase of the rest is being "reviewed".
Very insightful. I have been saying this to my family in the past few weeks: we are watching an empire implode in real time. It seems so reminiscent of Brexit- when Britons thought being part of the EU was an unneccesary 'burden' - only to realize later (regretfully) how much they lost by exiting a system of mutual benefits and ease.
In university my economics professors put forward the idea that all human were simply rational actors. Thus, in looking at the world we would always be inclined to make choices based on what left us better off. Classically, this included thought experiments such as game theory where if there was $10 available but my partner got to decide the split between us, I would always accept whatever was on offer because even just getting $1 would leave me better off. Yet, in real life I would not react like that, content to have both of us get nothing if I believed the other guy was being a jerk or flaunting norms. Of course, these are all simplifications of real life and other factors (such as whether I am desperate because I am starving) can enter the equation.
Your excellent piece reflects the complexity of life and how we can prioritize other things than straight up wealth and power. It will likely come as a surprise to Mr. Trump that those with whom he is interacting may in fact be willing to forego stuff he sees as the only important benefits in life in order to keep their freedom or pride. He has, thus far, been able to convince a significant number of his own citizens that his methods will make them wealthier, stronger, safer, etc., but hopefully this will dissipate over time. I hope that this happens reasonably quickly but no much suggests that is the case right now. And I suspect that when many realize what has taken place they will be shocked by how long the effects last.
MAGA , Project 2025 and TechBros all forget that the US has often been quite delinquent in its payments to multilateral organizations such as the UN and NATO in contrast to Canada and a number of the EU states. They also underestimate the benefits of the cooperation and exchange of information to setting international standards that make global communication possible, have established decent working standards and provided the infrastructure for their modern lives. Here is the text from a PowerPoint slide entitled " Multilateralism & Daily Lives:"
Goods- Your smartphone and most of your other nonperishable consumer items are made up parts & components coming from hundreds of companies around the world. This network of supply chains relies upon the International Standards Organization (ISO) sets quality standards that allow companies to quickly find part makers. As parts cross borders multiple times multilateral trade agreements reduce bureaucratic barriers, costs, and waiting times. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) and International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) regulations allow cargo to move further, faster and safer.
Work- The International Labour Organisation (ILO) sets the standards that have helped establish a minimum of a one-day weekend and a maximum of 48 hours of work per week.
Food Safety- Coffee, vanilla, citrus etc. Global food safety and quality standards set by Food and Agriculture Organization ( FAO) and the World Health Organization
Communications:
Email - When an email is sent it looks for the exact address of the receiver in DNS servers that act as the internet’s address book system. The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) works with companies, governments, and civil society to create protocols so that all devices from your computer to soil humidity sensors can connect to a truly global internet through these DNS servers.
Telephone-The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) helps to allow quick and automatic telephone connections across oceans through unified standards as fundamental as the length of a country code or subscriber number.
Post- The Universal Postal Union (UPU) has built an international postal framework that covers seemingly trivial things like the shape of post stamps to data systems that allow global parcel tracking. Communicating across the globe quickly and reliably with family, friends, and businesses is made possible through global standards with multilateral cooperation at their core."
I'm particularly impressed because I've been parsing human pro forecaster rationales vs GenAI rationales using the outputs of this https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/aibq1/ plus records of US National Intelligence Estimates (US State Department archives) via an automated integrative complexity measurement system here https://www.autoic.org/2025/03/02/home/.
You, by comparison with the best of the best from the above, are outstanding at the rare trait of dialectical integration, meaning explaining how seeming opposites could work together while valuing each other's goals.
As most of your readers may know, you coauthored a best-selling book with Phil Tetlock, Superforecasting. Long ago, Tetlock collaborated with Prof. Luke Conway, creator of AutoIC , on how to measure various forms of integrative complexity. In https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.09.003 Chris Karvetski, yours truly,Tetlock et al used Conway's AutoIC https://www.autoic.org to determine that integrative complexity correlates more strongly with human forecasting accuracy than anything else we measured. This research also implies that your message today is of vast importance for the peace and prosperity of the entire human race
So I have two questions. (1) How did you become so adept at integrative complexity, especially the rare trait of dialectical integration? (2) What can we do to amplify your voice? I'm about to post your "What Trump is Costing America" to all my social media accounts. What else?
That's very kind, Carolyn. Thank you. To answer your first question: I don't know. Thinking this way just seems reasonable to me. Always has. I know the theory behind it but I can't claim to be consciously adapting my thinking to it, or to have even pushed it further in that direction in response to the theory.
May I suggest a new book expanding on this essay of yours? I would be willing to feel out Prof. Luke Conway as a coauthor, as we have been corresponding lately, and Phil has long worked with Luke, so he might want to try for another bestseller with you. On the other hand, too many authors scare away publishers! (I have a few books under my belt, too.) But, darn it, how do we best get your insights before a larger audience?
The article is well written and fairly balanced. I only wonder if that river of money had not flowed out through government contracts and had even perhaps been left in the hands of the people what the economy would look like today. There are ways to do economic modeling to have some idea but they cannot predict what sort of entrepreneurial action could have occurred. This along with the incredible human cost goes into maintaining a global military. Of all the points made, only the notion that all money saved will be used to fund oligarchy is salient to me.
I have one other observation. The F 35 has a startling capacity for falling out of the sky. Maintenance is difficult and costly and requires a very large team for each plane. Cost overruns and production delays are a plague on the platform as well. Monies spent on this and other defense projects could have gone to infrastructure, baseline health maintenence, education, housing, regulatory streamlining or R&D to enhace quality of life in the US.
Good piece! Thanks. Provides a balanced high level perspective on the kernel of truth in Trump’s complaints about NATO, but also drills down into F-35 contracting and tariffs implications. And the emerging data showing comparative impact on US and European aviation/defence firms.
And HE spake a parable unto them, "Can the blind lead the blind? shall they not both fall into the ditch?"
In other words, it's not very wise to follow someone who is blind.
Now, in this particular context of Scripture, HE is referring to the Pharisee's. They were the so called religious experts of that era, yet they couldn't even see the TRUTH when HE was standing right in front of them and doing all HE could do to get them to open their eyes and see HIM.
We know how the story ended... Those dumb and blind "so called" religious experts crucified the LORD! They killed the man who came to save them!
I chose to use the biblical story above to give warning to followers of the author of this substack...
Don't follow the blind unless you want to end up in the ditch!
The author of this substack is either blind because they lack intelligence... Or possibly, instead of thinking for themselves, they are just repeating the narratives of MSM's fake news propaganda which, obviously, effectively deceived them.... Orrrr, the author of this substack is intentionally blind by reason of pure hatred of Donald Trump....
I don't know why the author is blind, but the author is blind and heading for a deep ditch!
John, if I am wrong, you should be able to show that I am wrong using arguments and evidence. Please give it a go. What you have done here, by contrast, is to simply state that I am wrong -- "blind" even -- without providing any reasoning whatsoever. That's enough coming from the Lord. But you, I'm sure you will agree, are not the Lord.
You sure you aren’t describing yourself, crackhead? Do you think the balls of the mandarin in the White House are too tasty to stop gargling? Do you seriously think that “thinking for yourself” is the same as blindly regurgitating some bullshit talking point just because some MAGA adjacent podcaster, YouTube pundit, radio talk jock, or TV presenter told you so? Or do you believe something because it feels true (AKA: “common sense”)? Do you have anything more than cherry picked Bible verses and logic that even a toddler can show to be flawed?
And are you the type of person who would trust a car mechanic’s takes on how to fix the plumbing in your house?
Yes! One of the remarkable things about the US military is that it effectively provides all sorts of social policies -- from government-funded housing, education, healthcare -- which are anathema across much of the American political spectrum.
The USA swung its might hard at the UN and in the International Financial Institutions. They pushed hard on neo-liberalism which pushed for privatization and wasted little time or money on building in-country capacity in the form of governments based on meritocracy and honesty.
And we can't forget the costs to other countries as faux wars were fought with Iraq, Grenada, Central America and remember the 1964 Bay of Tonkin incident? 30,000 Canadian volunteers fought for America in Vietnam and Canada lost about 200 military and civilians as well $18 billion in Afghanistan. How much for France and Britain in these wars that were simply a waste and caused more problems for the west.
Cutting western farmers wheat market in Africa will cause enormous hardship and deaths. But it just might allow the local agriculture sector to grow , it couldn't compete with free food in the worst off areas of Africa like the horn.
Do American parents really want to lose their kids to invading Canada, Panama and Greenland?
I put it to others quite simply: the United States generally acts out of self-interest. Nothing wrong with that but to claim that the U.S. has been taken advantage of is pure nonsense. The richest country in the world didn't get that way by been taken advantage of by all of its allies and trading partners. The idea that by treating your allies like enemies and your trading partners like shysters will bring you even more wealth is delusional.
I use the military industrial complex as the best example, and as you point out, the U.S. has done very well by being the "big dog" in the hunt. Nobody talks about that but that is about to change as your stock charts show. But MAGA is always on the lookout for a catchy slogan and an easy solution. The fact that this wins the day speaks badly of their education system. Critical thinking is not out there in abundance. But hey, who needs a Department of Education anyway?
Finally, the concept of good will in business used to be an important element of the calculation. And while some business concepts should not translate into the public sector, good will should and does. We've come to a point where the US is a breaker of treaties, alliances, norms, conventions and even laws. The US betrays and belittles its allies. The US tries to cripple their trading partner's economies. The US threatens independent and sovereign nations and territories with annexation. So all that goodwill built up over the last century has been squandered in a matter of weeks. What an ill-conceived path to have opted for. But here we are. A rough ride ahead for all but when the dust settles, the US will be a pariah, isolated, despised and poorer for it, in more ways than one.
Germany just approved a €100 billion military armament package. Will incoming Germany’s Chancellor Merz buy American weapons? No! He said: We have to come without the US because Trump cannot be trusted.
Trump claims that the US has helped Ukraine more than Europe and therefore wants Ukrainian earth minerals. Europe has supported Ukraine morw and is constantly supporting.
Trump's policy is losing the US’ best ally and biggest market, Europe. Trump has hope, Orban's market in Hungary.
I agree with everything in this piece except for when you refer to the remorseless logic of markets, if markets truly were rational allocators of capital to the most profitable venture why is Tesla that sells less than half as many units as Hyundai worth more than double Toyota, Ford & GM combined? Seriously put together a table (I’d attach the one I put together not the comments here don’t allow me to attach images) of the Top 10 auto manufacturers by Market Cap with their Units sold, revenue and profitability and then explain to me how markets are ruthlessly efficient rational allocators of capital, it’s impossible
This is a truly well-balanced and dispassionate assessment of the existing international system, its costs and benefits, including for the United States. I admire the cool-headed analysis in the heat of the times. For one, you capture ably some of the hypocrisies I used to encounter as an American diplomat, with certain friendly nations (who shall remain unnamed) asking the United States to pay for and do the dirty work and then complaining about how bad we smelled (with shit all over us) when we were foolish enough to do it. (A self-interested analysis, I know, but just saying). Totally agree about the benefits, hidden and open, that accrue to the leader, including the power to frame US national interests as applying more broadly to everyone, even when the argument was a bit of a stretch.
The only quibble I have, and it really is only a quibble, is the somewhat dismissive reference to soft power, as though this were a trifling matter of importance only to effete diplomats. While I totally agree that a trucker in Topeka (or Fresno or Galveston or Grand Junction for that matter) has no reason to care, I think Americans as a group do, or should. Rightly or wrongly, some of us who used to represent the United States (proudly) overseas, believed that the greatness of our power (if you agree) was inseparable from our being good (or at least trying to). Once we abandon even that pretense (shared prosperity, human rights, stability, let's just make money together, the pursuit of happiness, we're in this thing together, bla, bla, bla), we really are no different or better than Putin or Xi Jin Ping. So if raw "hard" power is the only metric that matters, then the political-strategic calculation changes radically for most others, including Canada (which I don't need to tell you). Is it possible that our mad king president (who presumably doesn't think deeply about such things with his dominant lizard brain) sees your country as Putin sees Ukraine? If so, by God, that changes everything.
Nicely done.
Thanks for commenting, Alexis. And thanks for giving me an opportunity to clarify: My comment about soft power was merely meant to reflect the thinking of the people I was discussing. Personally, I think soft power is real, important, and redounds to the benefit of America and Americans in a thousand different ways that aren't obvious but are nonetheless significant.
In answer to your last question, most Canadians would say yes. We would be the (non-voting) jewel in his crown.
Time to start digging trenches then, and laying down mines. I can’t even believe I might write this, even if (only) partly in jest. I used to make jokes with Canadian friends and counterparts about the great danger we faced from the fierce foe at our northern border. Reality (if this is reality) really is stranger than fiction.
Did anyone ever go wrong assuming the worst about that man? Trying to figure out a strategy to work around his obsession seems futile. We prepare ourselves for the worst but hope the house of cards collapses before things get there. I’m sorry about what all this means to decent Americans too.
I’m right there with you on both counts. Wait for the storm to pass, for the house of cards to collapse… The problem is that he has survived a lot longer than most of us expected, including after the open mayhem he unleashed on January 6. After that, like a bacteria strain that was not fully snuffed out by the antibiotics (the Senate did not approve the merited impeachments), he has surged back stronger than ever. Does that mean he is unstoppable? Before I would have said “no”, but now I’m not so sure. The best hope we have on this score is a third and decisive impeachment, and for a critical mass of the Republican party to be on board this time. But I’m not holding my breath. Nor am I apologizing to Canadian (and other) friends anymore… What use is it? We Americans did this to ourselves so, presumably, we deserve it. But does the world (whose voters had no say in the matter) deserve to go down with us? That is a good question.
I’m sorry, but Trump is not collapsing. He has right wing evangelicals, white supermacists and many who live in the fantasies of conspiracy theories and lies.
Universities, research, media who hold to facts did not start fighting for facts, knowledges and education when Alex Stones started Infowars, Qanon his conspiracy theories, white supermacist their violence. You have lost because you did not intervened big tech’s business i.e the flow of useless information as well as the flow of goods and services. Now all social media is full of shit. Your youth looks hours of Tiktok’s suicide and murder videos. Simply you can’t handel the situatio, because because the huge part of information industry is not regulated. An ignorant and uneducated and population is completely vulnerable to bad influences.
“Liked” and respect your reply, EXCEPT: “does the world deserve to go down with us?” is NOT a good question!! I think I must be misunderstanding you.
Maybe. Or I may be expressing myself poorly…or being flip about a matter that merits more seriousness. About six months ago, not long after joining substack, I published a post about giving foreigners a voice in US elections. Because foreign policy plays virtually NO role in the presidential elections themselves (most Americans don’t give a damn, for good or ill) while the election results can have a MAJOR impact on US foreign policy and, by extension, the world, it would be logical. Recalling the comments from foreign counterparts to that effect in different countries I served, I wondered whether by rights the US shouldn’t give foreigners some say in our elections. The interests of foreigners should somehow be reflected or taken into account. From a non American perspective, it is not fair or democratic to have decisions made about your fate by American voters who don’t even know enough to know they don’t care. That’s what I was trying to get at, clumsily.
Nailed it. Exactly the way I feel. I wonder about the “We”, though, and the “we Canadians“ in your first comment. Maybe I’m spending too much time reading on the internet, and I need to get out to talk to my neighbours more. But I don’t sense that most are thinking and evaluating enough to have gotten that far. Yet.
"Is it possible that our mad king president sees (Canada) as Putin sees Ukraine?"
Canadian here. Yes, that's exactly what many of us think. We're supportive of Ukraine, but a lot of us worry we're going to BE Ukraine in about six months, except with less strategic depth, fewer allies, and an even more powerful enemy. (we'll never be the 51st state though, because we'll never be allowed to vote).
Canada has been happily allied with the United States for decades (and yes, as Dan says, there might have been an element of free riding there). When push comes to shove we're happy to go along with the US because *we share values* with them. Or we did, anyway. Suddenly that has changed. We don't *want* to be the ally of this deranged tyrant who talks about annexing Greenland. Who the hell is this guy? As you say, we may as well ally with China... what difference does it make?
I agree the soft power element of Pax Americana has always been of great (but subtle) importance! It provided something for other nations to strive for. Thugs like putin and Xi feared American soft power and its influence. Such a shame! The free world hates you now, while cruel dictators grin and smirk.
I think if that were to happen you’d have a lot of Americans volunteers fighting on the Canadian side, if you’d have them.
I think you’re right. I’ve been hoping some would. And you can be damn sure I’d have them!
I know you are discussing such an eventuality (partly) in jest. But I am serious. It’s almost unthinkable. But I think Donald is pretty determined to have our resources and our territory. As a bonus, he would be delighted to be the man who realized manifest destiny.
I hope his house of cards collapses first, to use Marsha’s words.
Another way of the hot war nightmare being avoided, which also concerns me greatly, is that Canadian leadership concedes to arrangements so sweeping that they make our sovereignty almost meaningless. I don’t know what that would look like, but at a certain point bullets might be better.
Thanks for your thoughts, again. So well expressed and from your experienced perspective, I really appreciate them. (Half a mark off for “dominant lizard brain”! A quibble even smaller than yours with Dan. Haha.)
I imagine discussions of this quality are occurring in many places. I hope the thoughts and thinking in those discussions and this one are seeping out, spreading, growing …
Plain old lizard brain is better. You’re right.
Good for you to be a polite Canadian and leave out that Canada is ‘reviewing’ it’s F-35 order and will probably switch to Sweden’s Gripen - with the planes actually built in Canada. More Canadian and European jobs. Less American jobs. The Gripens can keep the Canadian border safe from a Southern or Northern invasion.
Portugal, too, is reviewing its decision to purchase F-35s. The dominoes might be falling , . .
I hope this happens!
Has that actually been decided? I hope so, but not sure, at least for the first 22 on order.
Nothing can really be decided until after an election. I think we (Canada) are only legally on the hook for the first 16 planes. The purchase of the rest is being "reviewed".
That's what I thought. So it's 16 on first order. Got it. Thanks.
Very insightful. I have been saying this to my family in the past few weeks: we are watching an empire implode in real time. It seems so reminiscent of Brexit- when Britons thought being part of the EU was an unneccesary 'burden' - only to realize later (regretfully) how much they lost by exiting a system of mutual benefits and ease.
In university my economics professors put forward the idea that all human were simply rational actors. Thus, in looking at the world we would always be inclined to make choices based on what left us better off. Classically, this included thought experiments such as game theory where if there was $10 available but my partner got to decide the split between us, I would always accept whatever was on offer because even just getting $1 would leave me better off. Yet, in real life I would not react like that, content to have both of us get nothing if I believed the other guy was being a jerk or flaunting norms. Of course, these are all simplifications of real life and other factors (such as whether I am desperate because I am starving) can enter the equation.
Your excellent piece reflects the complexity of life and how we can prioritize other things than straight up wealth and power. It will likely come as a surprise to Mr. Trump that those with whom he is interacting may in fact be willing to forego stuff he sees as the only important benefits in life in order to keep their freedom or pride. He has, thus far, been able to convince a significant number of his own citizens that his methods will make them wealthier, stronger, safer, etc., but hopefully this will dissipate over time. I hope that this happens reasonably quickly but no much suggests that is the case right now. And I suspect that when many realize what has taken place they will be shocked by how long the effects last.
MAGA , Project 2025 and TechBros all forget that the US has often been quite delinquent in its payments to multilateral organizations such as the UN and NATO in contrast to Canada and a number of the EU states. They also underestimate the benefits of the cooperation and exchange of information to setting international standards that make global communication possible, have established decent working standards and provided the infrastructure for their modern lives. Here is the text from a PowerPoint slide entitled " Multilateralism & Daily Lives:"
Goods- Your smartphone and most of your other nonperishable consumer items are made up parts & components coming from hundreds of companies around the world. This network of supply chains relies upon the International Standards Organization (ISO) sets quality standards that allow companies to quickly find part makers. As parts cross borders multiple times multilateral trade agreements reduce bureaucratic barriers, costs, and waiting times. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) and International Civil Aviation Organisation (ICAO) regulations allow cargo to move further, faster and safer.
Work- The International Labour Organisation (ILO) sets the standards that have helped establish a minimum of a one-day weekend and a maximum of 48 hours of work per week.
Food Safety- Coffee, vanilla, citrus etc. Global food safety and quality standards set by Food and Agriculture Organization ( FAO) and the World Health Organization
Communications:
Email - When an email is sent it looks for the exact address of the receiver in DNS servers that act as the internet’s address book system. The Internet Corporation for Assigned Names and Numbers (ICANN) works with companies, governments, and civil society to create protocols so that all devices from your computer to soil humidity sensors can connect to a truly global internet through these DNS servers.
Telephone-The International Telecommunication Union (ITU) helps to allow quick and automatic telephone connections across oceans through unified standards as fundamental as the length of a country code or subscriber number.
Post- The Universal Postal Union (UPU) has built an international postal framework that covers seemingly trivial things like the shape of post stamps to data systems that allow global parcel tracking. Communicating across the globe quickly and reliably with family, friends, and businesses is made possible through global standards with multilateral cooperation at their core."
The techno-autocrats call themselves the Cognitive Elite, but I’ll bet not a single one of them could explain how a pancreas works. Good post.
Magnificent research and analysis.
I'm particularly impressed because I've been parsing human pro forecaster rationales vs GenAI rationales using the outputs of this https://www.metaculus.com/tournament/aibq1/ plus records of US National Intelligence Estimates (US State Department archives) via an automated integrative complexity measurement system here https://www.autoic.org/2025/03/02/home/.
You, by comparison with the best of the best from the above, are outstanding at the rare trait of dialectical integration, meaning explaining how seeming opposites could work together while valuing each other's goals.
As most of your readers may know, you coauthored a best-selling book with Phil Tetlock, Superforecasting. Long ago, Tetlock collaborated with Prof. Luke Conway, creator of AutoIC , on how to measure various forms of integrative complexity. In https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ijforecast.2021.09.003 Chris Karvetski, yours truly,Tetlock et al used Conway's AutoIC https://www.autoic.org to determine that integrative complexity correlates more strongly with human forecasting accuracy than anything else we measured. This research also implies that your message today is of vast importance for the peace and prosperity of the entire human race
So I have two questions. (1) How did you become so adept at integrative complexity, especially the rare trait of dialectical integration? (2) What can we do to amplify your voice? I'm about to post your "What Trump is Costing America" to all my social media accounts. What else?
That's very kind, Carolyn. Thank you. To answer your first question: I don't know. Thinking this way just seems reasonable to me. Always has. I know the theory behind it but I can't claim to be consciously adapting my thinking to it, or to have even pushed it further in that direction in response to the theory.
May I suggest a new book expanding on this essay of yours? I would be willing to feel out Prof. Luke Conway as a coauthor, as we have been corresponding lately, and Phil has long worked with Luke, so he might want to try for another bestseller with you. On the other hand, too many authors scare away publishers! (I have a few books under my belt, too.) But, darn it, how do we best get your insights before a larger audience?
The article is well written and fairly balanced. I only wonder if that river of money had not flowed out through government contracts and had even perhaps been left in the hands of the people what the economy would look like today. There are ways to do economic modeling to have some idea but they cannot predict what sort of entrepreneurial action could have occurred. This along with the incredible human cost goes into maintaining a global military. Of all the points made, only the notion that all money saved will be used to fund oligarchy is salient to me.
I have one other observation. The F 35 has a startling capacity for falling out of the sky. Maintenance is difficult and costly and requires a very large team for each plane. Cost overruns and production delays are a plague on the platform as well. Monies spent on this and other defense projects could have gone to infrastructure, baseline health maintenence, education, housing, regulatory streamlining or R&D to enhace quality of life in the US.
Good piece! Thanks. Provides a balanced high level perspective on the kernel of truth in Trump’s complaints about NATO, but also drills down into F-35 contracting and tariffs implications. And the emerging data showing comparative impact on US and European aviation/defence firms.
JESUS once made a statement....
Luke 6:39
And HE spake a parable unto them, "Can the blind lead the blind? shall they not both fall into the ditch?"
In other words, it's not very wise to follow someone who is blind.
Now, in this particular context of Scripture, HE is referring to the Pharisee's. They were the so called religious experts of that era, yet they couldn't even see the TRUTH when HE was standing right in front of them and doing all HE could do to get them to open their eyes and see HIM.
We know how the story ended... Those dumb and blind "so called" religious experts crucified the LORD! They killed the man who came to save them!
I chose to use the biblical story above to give warning to followers of the author of this substack...
Don't follow the blind unless you want to end up in the ditch!
The author of this substack is either blind because they lack intelligence... Or possibly, instead of thinking for themselves, they are just repeating the narratives of MSM's fake news propaganda which, obviously, effectively deceived them.... Orrrr, the author of this substack is intentionally blind by reason of pure hatred of Donald Trump....
I don't know why the author is blind, but the author is blind and heading for a deep ditch!
So don't follow!!
John, if I am wrong, you should be able to show that I am wrong using arguments and evidence. Please give it a go. What you have done here, by contrast, is to simply state that I am wrong -- "blind" even -- without providing any reasoning whatsoever. That's enough coming from the Lord. But you, I'm sure you will agree, are not the Lord.
Hear hear!!
You sure you aren’t describing yourself, crackhead? Do you think the balls of the mandarin in the White House are too tasty to stop gargling? Do you seriously think that “thinking for yourself” is the same as blindly regurgitating some bullshit talking point just because some MAGA adjacent podcaster, YouTube pundit, radio talk jock, or TV presenter told you so? Or do you believe something because it feels true (AKA: “common sense”)? Do you have anything more than cherry picked Bible verses and logic that even a toddler can show to be flawed?
And are you the type of person who would trust a car mechanic’s takes on how to fix the plumbing in your house?
What in the hell are you talking about!? All that just to say (he) is blind? No suggestion as to what he is blind about? Sheesh 🙄!!
The US military expenditure can also be looked at as a massive social program in raising lower class Americans into the middle class.
Yes! One of the remarkable things about the US military is that it effectively provides all sorts of social policies -- from government-funded housing, education, healthcare -- which are anathema across much of the American political spectrum.
The USA swung its might hard at the UN and in the International Financial Institutions. They pushed hard on neo-liberalism which pushed for privatization and wasted little time or money on building in-country capacity in the form of governments based on meritocracy and honesty.
And we can't forget the costs to other countries as faux wars were fought with Iraq, Grenada, Central America and remember the 1964 Bay of Tonkin incident? 30,000 Canadian volunteers fought for America in Vietnam and Canada lost about 200 military and civilians as well $18 billion in Afghanistan. How much for France and Britain in these wars that were simply a waste and caused more problems for the west.
Cutting western farmers wheat market in Africa will cause enormous hardship and deaths. But it just might allow the local agriculture sector to grow , it couldn't compete with free food in the worst off areas of Africa like the horn.
Do American parents really want to lose their kids to invading Canada, Panama and Greenland?
Good article. You kept using the wrong tense with regards to American leadership, that’s all in the past now.
Thanks. Well presented analysis.
I put it to others quite simply: the United States generally acts out of self-interest. Nothing wrong with that but to claim that the U.S. has been taken advantage of is pure nonsense. The richest country in the world didn't get that way by been taken advantage of by all of its allies and trading partners. The idea that by treating your allies like enemies and your trading partners like shysters will bring you even more wealth is delusional.
I use the military industrial complex as the best example, and as you point out, the U.S. has done very well by being the "big dog" in the hunt. Nobody talks about that but that is about to change as your stock charts show. But MAGA is always on the lookout for a catchy slogan and an easy solution. The fact that this wins the day speaks badly of their education system. Critical thinking is not out there in abundance. But hey, who needs a Department of Education anyway?
Finally, the concept of good will in business used to be an important element of the calculation. And while some business concepts should not translate into the public sector, good will should and does. We've come to a point where the US is a breaker of treaties, alliances, norms, conventions and even laws. The US betrays and belittles its allies. The US tries to cripple their trading partner's economies. The US threatens independent and sovereign nations and territories with annexation. So all that goodwill built up over the last century has been squandered in a matter of weeks. What an ill-conceived path to have opted for. But here we are. A rough ride ahead for all but when the dust settles, the US will be a pariah, isolated, despised and poorer for it, in more ways than one.
Lockheed Martin is tasked with weather control and chemtrails. Sure, let’s keep the funding going.
Germany just approved a €100 billion military armament package. Will incoming Germany’s Chancellor Merz buy American weapons? No! He said: We have to come without the US because Trump cannot be trusted.
Trump claims that the US has helped Ukraine more than Europe and therefore wants Ukrainian earth minerals. Europe has supported Ukraine morw and is constantly supporting.
Trump's policy is losing the US’ best ally and biggest market, Europe. Trump has hope, Orban's market in Hungary.
I agree with everything in this piece except for when you refer to the remorseless logic of markets, if markets truly were rational allocators of capital to the most profitable venture why is Tesla that sells less than half as many units as Hyundai worth more than double Toyota, Ford & GM combined? Seriously put together a table (I’d attach the one I put together not the comments here don’t allow me to attach images) of the Top 10 auto manufacturers by Market Cap with their Units sold, revenue and profitability and then explain to me how markets are ruthlessly efficient rational allocators of capital, it’s impossible
Well, I think we're seeing a market adjustment in real time with Tesla, so give it a few months and we may well witness the rational market in action.